TFM Midday Update 11-4-2024

CORN

The corn market remains firm at midday as bull spreading pushes the December contract higher relative to the deferred contracts as hedge activity slows with harvest beginning to wrap up and farmer selling slows.
The USDA reported new flash export sales this morning totaling 270,000 metric tons of corn for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year. Of that total, 150,000 mt were sold to Mexico, with 120,000 going to unknown destinations.
The USDA reported that 440 million bushels of corn were used in ethanol production in September, a 2.7% increase from the same month last year, indicating sustained strong demand.
Commitment of Traders report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that, as of October 29, managed funds had covered nearly 54,000 short corn futures contracts, reducing their net short position to just 17,703 contracts.
Safras & Mercado, another firm, estimates that Brazil’s Center-South is 72.3% done with corn planting, which compares to 72.7% last year, and the five year average of 72.1% complete.

Though still higher on the day, the soybean market is well off session highs as it trades just above the day’s lows. Sharp losses and a key bearish reversal in soybean oil is weighing on soybeans while meal trades higher, reversing Friday’s losses.
The USDA reported a new flash soybean export sale this morning totaling 132,000 metric tons for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
US soybean crush activity remains robust, with the USDA reporting a total of 186.5 million bushels crushed in September, marking a 6.7% increase from last year.
The Commitment of Traders report released on Friday by the CFTC showed that managed funds sold 12,652 soybean futures contracts, expanding their net short position to 72,226 contracts.
Brazilian ag consulting firm Patria Agronegocios estimates that Brazil’s 24/25 soybean crop is 52.9% planted, compared to 50.6% at the same time last year.

The wheat complex is posting modest gains across all three classes, with December contracts mostly consolidating within Friday’s trading range. Of the three, December KC is the only contract to dip slightly below Friday’s low.
Ukraine’s agriculture ministry reported a 56% year over year increase in grain exports, totaling 14.4 million metric tons. Wheat exports totaled 7.7 million metric tons, up 67% from the same period last year
Managed funds activity was rather light in the week ending Oct. 29. According to the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report on Friday, managed funds sold just over 2,200 Chicago wheat futures contracts, increasing their net short position to slightly above 31,000 contracts.
A report issued by the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies in Russia indicated that Russia’s 2025 grain harvest could reach 130 million metric tons. Of this total, they estimate that 85 mmt would be wheat, though they note that wheat development lags, which could still lower estimates.

Scott Masters