TFM Midday Update 11-27-2024

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

CORN

The anticipation that the Trump administration may issue tariffs on both Canada and Mexico continues to limit upside movement for corn futures.
South American weather remains favorable, and the extended outlook continues to look that way into mid-December. This may also limit upside potential for corn and soybeans too.
According to export group ANEC, Brazilian November corn exports declined to 5.1 mmt, when compared with 7 mmt last year.
First Notice Day for December futures is this Friday, and with Thanksgiving tomorrow, this means that long contract holders will need to exit today or be at risk of being delivered against. This may also keep some selling pressure on corn today.

Despite palm oil gaining 1.3% on Wednesday, soybean oil is down sharply this morning, which may be keeping a lid on soybean futures.
Rain is expected over the next couple of weeks in the dry areas of Paraguay, Argentina, and southern Brazil, which could result in 2-4 inches of rain. This has some analysts projecting between 700-750 mb of increased soybean production for South America when compared to last year.
According to export group ANEC, Brazilian November soybean exports declined to 2.4 mmt, when compared with 4.6 mmt last year.

Argentina’s currency, the Peso, has hit a record low level, and with their wheat export offers have also fallen. With harvest taking place there and in Australia, this is keeping pressure on the US market.
The US Southern Plains have received a combination of rain and snow which should keep winter wheat crop prospects high. Monday’s rating of 55% good to excellent is the highest in four years.
EU wheat exports are said to be down 30% year on year, after a disappointing harvest this year, which could be a bullish factor. Additionally, Black Sea tensions may keep wheat prices supported over the summer lows.

Brandon Doherty