TFM Midday Update 11-25-2024

CORN

The corn market is trading near the low end of a tight 4-cent range, extending Friday’s weakness, with additional pressure from lower trade in the wheat complex.
Today the USDA reported private export sales of corn totaling 454,090 mt for delivery to Mexico. Of this, 364,792 mt are for the 24/25 marketing year, and 89,298 mt are for 25/26.
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of corn as of November 19, adding 4,639 contracts and increasing their net long position to 114,628 contracts, the highest since March 2023.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported this year’s corn harvest is 5% behind last year’s pace, with 23.6 mmt harvested by the third week of November compared to 24.9 mmt a year ago.

The soybean market remains firm at midday, supported by sharply higher soybean meal, likely driven by short covering. Meanwhile, soybean oil has turned sharply lower, pressured by weaker crude oil, which adds overhead resistance to soybeans as traders continue to liquidate long positions
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 13,165 soybean contracts in the week ending November 19, increasing their net short position to 67,701 contracts.
In Brazil, 24/25 soybean planting reached 86% of expected areas as of last Thursday, up from 74% at the same time last year. Weather has remained favorable, with scattered showers across the country.

The wheat complex continues to trade lower to start the week as traders press the market amid a lack of major Black Sea news.
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated that managed funds sold 6,239 contracts of Chicago wheat, increasing their net short position to 51,546 contracts.
IKAR raised its estimate for Russia’s total grain harvest from 124.5 mmt to 125 mmt, while the Russian Deputy Prime Minister stated that total grain exports would be near 60 mmt, down from last year’s 72 mmt, with total wheat production projected at 83 mmt.

Scott Masters