TFM Midday Update 11-14-2023

CORN

Corn is trading mixed near midday on the heels of yesterday’s rally, but prices are nearing resistance at the 40 and 50-day moving averages which are near $4.97 in March.
Today, private exporters reported a flash sale in the amount of 101,745 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
For the week ending November 9, the U.S. inspected 609k tons of corn for export which compared to 575k tons a week prior and 536k a year ago.
France raised its estimates for its corn crop due to beneficial weather and is now seeing the crop at 12.5 million tons which is up from October’s estimate of 12.1 mmt.

Soybeans are trading lower today after yesterday’s impressive soybean meal led the rally, as chances for rain in northern Brazil over the next 7 days are reportedly improved.
Soybean meal is trading slightly lower today, but is not far from yesterday’s contract high, as strong meal exports support the futures. Soybean oil is trading higher, along with palm oil and crude oil.
Analysts are expecting that the El Nino weather pattern will support crude palm oil prices, as major palm oil producing countries’ output will likely decline in 2024.
Brazilian soybean planting is reportedly 61% complete for 23/24, which compares with 51% the prior week. Due to the dry weather in Mato Grosso, Ag Rural has cut the state’s output by 1.1 million tons.

Wheat has turned higher after a lower start and now all three contracts are higher, with the most gains in the Minneapolis contract. Prices remain just off their recent lows.
Crop progress showed that 93% of the winter wheat crop was planted and 81% emerged, but the good to excellent rating slipped by 3 points to 47% and 17% rated poor to very poor.
The Consumer Price Index increased by less than expected, which could cause the Fed to abstain from another rate hike. This has caused the stock market to rally and the US dollar to fall sharply, which is supportive for wheat.
Prices remain near contract lows due to poor export sales. Yesterday, weekly export inspections were a meager 207k tons, down 26% from the previous year.

Amanda Brill