TFM Midday Update 11-13-2024

CORN

The corn market is feeling pressure from lower wheat and soybeans as it trades below support from earlier this week. Slow producer selling and strong demand are supportive for the December contract versus the deferred contracts.
The USDA reported private export sales of corn totaling 692,177 mt for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year. Of that total, 401,357 mt were sold to Mexico. The other 290,820 mt were sold to unknown destinations.
The USDA reported that as of Sunday, Nov. 10, the corn harvest was 95% complete. This is well ahead of last year’s pace of 86% complete, and 11% ahead of the 5-year average.
Conab is expected to release its updated crop estimates for the 24/25 season on Thursday. The trade expects Brazil’s corn production to come in at 123.5 mmt, 3.8 mmt higher than its last projection.

Soybeans are trading lower across the board at midday, weighed down by further declines in both soybean meal and oil. Processors’ need to keep supply lines full may be supporting nearby contracts versus the deferred.
The USDA reported the soybean harvest to be 96% complete as of Sunday, Nov. 10. With harvest nearly done, this will likely be the final crop progress report of the year.
Conab is expected to release its updated crop estimates for the 24/25 season on Thursday. The trade expects Brazil’s soybean production to be near 168.3 mmt, with estimates ranging between 166.2 mmt and 171.8 mmt.
China’s COFCO estimates that the country’s soybean imports may drop by 9.5% for the 24/25 marketing year. Officials also stated that Chinese buyers stockpiled soybeans ahead of the US elections out of concern for deteriorating relations with the US.

Chicago wheat is leading the wheat complex lower at midday, pressured by improved crop conditions and expectations of additional moisture in the Plains states.
The USDA reported an increase in winter wheat crop conditions in this week’s crop progress report. The good to excellent categories improved 3% from the week prior to 44%, due to the increased moisture.
In its first projection, SovEcon pegged Ukraine’s 2025 wheat crop at 21.1 mmt, below the 5-year average.
As of Nov. 10, the EU’s wheat exports for the current season that started July 1, dropped 29% to 8.7 mmt, from 12.3 mmt exported by this time last year.

Scott Masters