TFM Midday Update 09-11-2024

CORN

The corn market has given up its gains from overnight and earlier in the session and is currently trading near the lower end of the day’s range near the 20-day moving average.
The EIA will be out with its weekly ethanol production numbers. The trade is looking for a slight bump in production from last week to 1.062 million barrels per day, with stocks estimated to come in at 23.338 million barrels, just under last week’s 23.354 m. bbl.
Tomorrow the USDA will release its September WASDE report. The trade estimates that 24/25 corn ending stocks will decline about 40 million bushels to 2.033 billion bushels from the August projection of 2.073 bb. Yield is expected to come in near 182.7 bpa versus 183.1 bpa last month.
Concerns remain regarding Chinese demand, as domestic prices continue to drop and a deflationary economy could reduce import demand. On the other hand, rising domestic prices in India could increase the chance of imports.

Soybeans, like corn, are trading well off their highs from earlier in the session with lower soybean oil weighing on prices despite higher crude and palm oils. Soybean meal is trading mid-range and in the green at midday.
US export premiums out of the Gulf of Mexico are currently running about 40 cents cheaper than Brazil, which should help increase sales. A concerning factor to US exports is the low water levels on the Mississippi River, which are currently at restrictive levels and could hamper shipments if the situation persists. On the positive side, there have been rumors of Chinese soybean purchases off the PNW for the October – November time slot.
Export premiums out of Brazil have been on the rise due to the continued dryness, which has slowed early planting and created logistics issues on the river system due to low water levels. Prolonged dryness in the region could also delay planting further, jeopardizing yields, and widening the US export window.
The USDA will release its updated WASDE numbers tomorrow. The trade is expecting a minor uptick in US ending stocks for the 24/25 marketing year to 568 mb from 560 mb in August. Yield is expected to come in nearly unchanged from last month at 53.3 bpa.

The wheat complex is extending its gains again at midday, with the Chicago contracts showing higher prices for the third consecutive day.
Continued dry weather in the southern Plains and Black Sea region is adding support to prices. Expansion of drought in HRW areas and wet weather expected in SRW areas from hurricane Francine could affect the planting pace.
With reductions to the European and Black Sea wheat crops, US exports have picked up and are running 31% higher than last year. In tomorrow’s WASDE report, the trade is looking for 24/25 ending stocks to drop about 6 mb to 822 mb, from the August estimate of 828 mb.

Scott Masters