CORN

• The corn market is rebounding off its lows from earlier in the session and trading towards the upper end of its range. Weekly export inspections came in at 836, 413 metric tons, though down from last week, they are 31% above the same time last year.
• Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data released on Friday showed managed funds covered a large 65,697 contracts of their short position in the week leading up to September 3. As of that date they were reported to be net short 176,211 corn futures contracts, roughly half of their record short position from last July.
• Thursday the USDA will release its September WASDE report. Corn production for this year’s crop is expected to drop slightly to 15,076 billion bushels from the August report’s 15,147 bb. The average trade guess for 24/25 ending stocks is also down slightly at 2.007 bb versus 2.073 in August. The trade expects old crop 23/24 ending stocks to come in at 1.856 bb, compared to 1.867 bb last month.
• Except for a tropical storm which is expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and bring rain into the Delta and the South, the Midwest is expected to remain mainly dry with another round of hot weather this week which could stress the immature crops.
• South American weather could be lending some support as it is expected to remain dry for the next couple of weeks, which if prolonged could delay corn and soybean planting and potentially the much larger safrinha crop which is planted after soybean harvest.

SOYBEANS

• The soybean market is trading higher and towards the top end of the range at midday as it recovers from Friday’s losses, with support coming from higher meal and oil. Weekly export inspections were softer than last week and last year at this time, at 354,166 metric tons.
• Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data released on Friday showed managed funds covered 22,455 contracts of their short position in the week leading up to September 3. As of that date they were reported to be net short, 154,096 soybean futures contracts.
• The USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons for delivery to China for the 24/25 marketing year. We are at the time of year when sales like this are becoming more routine with US export prices typically cheaper than South American offers.
• Thursday, the USDA will release its September WASDE report. Trade expectations are for this year’s crop production to remain unchanged at 4.589 billion bushels. The average trade guess for 24/25 ending stocks is 565 million bushels versus 560 mb currently, with 23/24 carryout shrinking slightly to 341 mb versus 345 last month.
• Except for a tropical storm which is expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and bring rain into the Delta and the South, the Midwest is expected to remain mainly dry with another round of hot weather this week which could stress the immature crops.
• South American weather could be lending some support as it is expected to remain dry for the next couple of weeks, which if prolonged could delay planting and cut into yield forecasts.

WHEAT

• The wheat complex is lower across the board at midday as it follows through on Friday’s weakness. Weekly export inspection for all wheat came in at 586,687 metric tons. Though they were below last week, they were 44% above last year’s numbers at this time.
• Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data released on Friday showed managed funds covered 13,578 contracts of their short position in the week leading up to September 3. As of that date they were reported to be net short, 42,624 Chicago wheat futures contracts, nearly half of their total net short position from the end of July.
• In Thursday’s WASDE report, the USDA will focus on the 24/25 marketing year. With current US export sales running 31% ahead of last year, the average trade estimate for 24/25 US carry out is 823 mb, 5 mb less than last month’s USDA projection.
• Once the report is out of the way, the trade will begin to focus on planting the 25/26 crop. Conditions in the southwestern Plains and the Black Sea region remain dry. Though some rain is expected in W. Montana, with some reaching S. Illinois from the system in the Gulf, and the northwestern Plains next week. Rain this week in Europe could slow planting there.

Author

Scott Masters