TFM Midday Update 08-29-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower at midday following crop progress that showed less deterioration of the crop than previously expected by trade.
Temperatures were in the 60’s this morning through the Corn Belt with showers near the Oklahoma panhandle, but conditions are dry otherwise and are forecast to be hot and dry over the next 14 days.
Crop progress showed corn’s good to excellent rating falling to 56% from 58% last week and the average trade guess being 55%. 88% of the crop is in the dough stage, 51% is dented compared to 35% last week, and 9% is mature compared to 4% a week ago.
Brazil is currently harvesting their safrinha corn, but harvest pace is slow due to wet conditions in the South. Brazil’s total corn crop for 23/24 is projected at 133 mmt.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower and have come off the earlier morning lows with a recovery by soybean oil, while soybean meal trades lower.
Surprisingly, yesterday’s crop progress data showed little degradation in the soybean crop with good to excellent ratings falling only one point to 58% despite the heat and dry weather.
This morning private exporters reported a sale of 246,100 metric tons of soybeans to delivery to unknown destinations for 23/24, and a sale of 105,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal to unknown destinations for 23/24.
Argentina is attempting to encourage farmer selling by possibly implementing a temporary forex rate for processors where 75% of revenues are exchanged at the official rate of about 350 pesos per dollar and the other 25% could be sold on parallel markets trading at more than 700 pesos per dollar.

Wheat is trading lower again as it continues its lower trend, and December Chicago wheat has taken out its contract low as prices slump during harvest.
Yesterday’s crop progress said 54% of the spring wheat crop was harvested and 37% of it was rated good to excellent. Minnesota has the best crop ratings at 63% good to excellent and Washington is the worst at 25%.
Russia is currently harvesting their wheat crop which is estimated at a huge 85.0 mmt for 23/24 and will likely be big enough for them to maintain their hold on world wheat exports again.
The President of Turkey is expected to meet with Vladimir Putin next week to discuss the grain deal with hopes Russia will agree to renew it.

Amanda Brill