TFM Midday Update 08-04-2023

CORN

Corn is finally trading higher after eight consecutively lower closes after Ukraine attacked a Russian warship near a Black Sea port overnight, which temporarily shut the port down.
Last night’s attack by the Ukrainians was the first time in the war that a Russian port was attacked and has traders concerned that Russian exports could be affected.
Today’s gains may be dampened by the increasingly friendly looking 7 day and 2-week forecasts for the entire Corn Belt, and essentially all corn growing areas, but with the crop having been so stressed, it is unclear how much some of the worst hit areas can improve.
Next week on August 11, the USDA will release their updated yield estimates. StoneX recently put out their own private estimate at 177 bpa which seems a bit high.

Soybeans are higher today, but have backed significantly off their overnight highs, which were caused by the attack on the Russian warship. Soybean meal is lower, while soybean oil is higher, along with crude oil.
Malaysian palm oil futures are trading higher after a sharp selloff over the last week, which was due to surging palm oil stocks as production reached the highest levels in 7 months.
Yesterday, the USDA reported a new sale of 4.9 mb of US soybeans to China, and export sales for last week were an impressive 97 mb of new crop beans with primary destinations to China and unknown destinations.
While the US has finally picked up on some of the export action, Brazil still dominates globally with 12 mmt of soybeans exported in July compared to 7.5 mmt a year ago.

Wheat futures are mixed at midday and have come well off their highs from the escalation in the Black Sea region. Chicago wheat and Minn are still higher, but KC wheat has backed off and is now lower on the day.
Russia has recently sold 300,000 mt of wheat to Egypt and covered a large portion of an 800,000 mt sale to Algeria, but Russian wheat prices have been inching higher.
Russia recently said that it would offer cheaper wheat to “friendly” countries, ones that have not imposed sanctions, which is further proof that Russia is using food as a leveraging tool in the war.
Heavy rains in northern France and Germany have slowed harvest and raised concerns about quality. Germany’s crop is 40% harvested, while France is 87% complete. Ukraine has harvested 12.5 mmt so far but may not be able to export it.

Amanda Brill