TFM Midday Update 08-02-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower near midday after retreating from gains made overnight due to Russia attacking a Ukrainian port on the Danube River. Trade is mostly focused on the favorable 2-week forecast.
December corn has fallen by 67 cents in the past seven days, as weather turned from hot and dry to a forecast of cooler and wetter. Today, heavy rains have fallen in Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, and southern Illinois.
The June Crushings report showed that corn used in ethanol production was 441.5 mb, up slightly from May and in line with expectations. Ethanol margins have improved since June.
While Brazil has dominated global export sales in corn, China purchased 11 mmt of Ukrainian corn last year, and they will likely have to turn to the US to make up some of that grain.

Soybeans are lower again today, along with lower soybean meal, but soybean oil is bull spread with the front two contracts higher and deferred contracts lower. Favorable weather forecasts are pressuring soybeans.
November soybeans have lost approximately $1.05 in the past 7 days as a result of recent rains, along with a good looking forecast for the next two weeks, which shows steady rains and temperatures in the 80’s for the Corn Belt.
June soybean crush was released and showed 174.6 mb crushed, slightly higher than a year ago, but below trade expectations.
Following the recent selloff, US FOB soybean meal is currently $4/ton cheaper than Argentine offers, but no new sales have been reported.

Wheat is trading lower and has shown the biggest reversal from overnight highs as a result of the Russian attack on Ukraine’s Danube River port.
Traders have become a bit numb to attacks on Ukrainian ports at this point, and although the market might rally, focus quickly turns back to winter wheat harvest and weather.
There has been some supportive news as Canada’s spring wheat areas have been drier than normal, while Argentina’s topsoil and subsoil moisture are very short with no rain in the forecast.
The quarterly Flour Milling report was released and all wheat ground for flour was at 222 mb, down 2% from the first quarter grind and down 4% from the second quarter of 2022.

Amanda Brill