TFM Midday Update 05-10-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher at midday ahead of today’s WASDE report. July corn is trading back above its 100-day moving average after three consecutively lower closes. The 6 to 10-day forecast features more rain in the central and eastern Corn Belt which could further delay planting.
Expectations for today’s USDA report are that old crop stocks will fall slightly to 2.098 billion bushels, that new crop production will be pegged at 14.9 bb which would be down from last year, and that South American production will be revised lower.
Chinese imports of corn are expected to fall by one-third in the coming year as the country increases planted acreage in an attempt to decrease its reliance on other countries for agricultural products.

Soybeans are mixed at midday with the front months trading slightly higher but new crop months unchanged to lower. Soybean meal is slightly lower, while soybean oil is recovering from recent losses and is higher. As in corn, soybean plantings have been delayed due to recent rains.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report are calling for old crop ending stocks to be mostly unchanged at 341 mb, while new crop production estimates are around 4.43 billion bushels which would be up from last year. As in corn, South American production is expected to be lowered.
In Brazil, there remain large issues regarding the soybeans which have not been harvested and remain in the fields due to severe flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. The extent of the damage is yet unknown, but that state is a key producer and exporter of soybeans and could impact exports to Argentina.

All three wheat classes are trading higher today led by Chicago wheat. July Chicago futures are well above the 200-day moving average and have rallied by one dollar since last month’s low on the 18th. Reports of frost hitting Russia’s wheat crop have been supportive.
Estimates for today’s report are expected to show that old crop ending stocks will be lowered by around 11 mb to 689 mb, and that all new crop wheat production will be around 1.895 bb which would be higher than last year.
In Australia, conditions have been dry which is raising concerns over wheat production. There are concerns over soil moisture levels, and one analyst group cut the forecast planted area to 4.7 million hectares.

Amanda Brill