TFM Midday Update 02-05-2025

CORN

Corn prices are trading lower at midday, following a pause in tariffs from Canada and Mexico, alongside a continued decline in the U.S. dollar.
Dr. Cordonnier has reduced his Brazil corn estimate by 2 mt, now projecting 123 mt, compared to the USDA’s estimate of 127 mt. This adjustment is due to 30-40% of the safrinha corn crop being planted outside of the ideal window.
Weather in Argentina is expected to be moderate over the next couple of weeks, but dry conditions will persist, posing an ongoing threat to corn. With low confidence in any significant rainfall, drought conditions are likely to worsen, which will remain unfavorable for corn development.
USDA confirms 330,000 tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Mexico in 25/26.

Soybean prices are trading lower at midday as tariff negotiations with China continue, with implementation expected on February 10th causing uncertainty within the market. Soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are all experiencing declines.
Brazil’s 24/25 soybean crop is projected to reach a record 174 mmt, assuming favorable weather conditions, according to agribusiness consultancy Celeres.
China’s demand for U.S. soybeans is expected to drop as the Brazil harvest increases. However, this will be heavily influenced by the ongoing harvest in Brazil, where heavy rains in key areas have caused significant delays to the soybean harvest.

Wheat prices are trading mixed at midday, despite growing concerns of winterkill in the central U.S. due to a recent cold snap.
Ukraine’s wheat is under stress as moisture levels have reached their lowest point in the past seven seasons.
Up to 10 Chinese cargoes of Australian wheat, totaling 600,000 tons, have either been delayed at ports or redirected to other Asian buyers due to China’s bumper wheat crop this year.
India’s wheat planted this season is expected to rise to 32.49 million hectares, compared to 31.83 last year.
The 6-10 day forecast for the U.S. Plains indicates normal precipitation chances, with cold weather moving into the area, raising the risk of potential winterkill.

Lauren VandenLangenberg