CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• A combination of factors brought the sellers to the corn market on Friday to end the week. Corn futures were sharply lower as the grain markets were impacted by options expiration, weather forecasts, technical selling, and longer-term demand concerns. December corn finished the week 5 ¼ cents higher despite the strong selling pressure on Friday.
• August corn options expired on Friday. The August options are tied to the September futures prices, and the market can move to areas of large open interest. Prices seemed to move to close out open August corn options at the 495 strike in the market on Friday.
• Recent weather models are staying above normal temperatures, but some of those longer-range models have moderated and increased chances of precipitation across the central and eastern Corn Belt going into August. The more friendly forecast likely triggered some weather premium leaving the market.
• Thursday, new crop corn export sales were firm according to expectations at 29.3 mb, the current total for new crop corn sales on the books is disappointing. Currently, new crop sales total 4.87 mmt, which is in line with last year, but total sales are one of the weakest totals for this time of year in the past 10 years.
• December corn was challenging key resistance at the 420 level most of the week. As that level held, sellers took control of the market to end the week. In September corn, the ease that prices broke the 400 barrier triggered technical selling in the market. Price follow-through next week will be key if this establishes a new trend in the corn market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply lower and gave back a large portion of the gains that they had accumulated earlier this week. The 20-day moving average has been strong resistance for November soybeans consistently since Tuesday, and today prices finally broke to the downside after failing again at the 20-day. Soybean oil dragged prices lower with the September contract losing 4.82%, and soybean meal was mixed with the front months higher and deferred contracts lower.
• For the week, August soybeans lost 19 ¾ cents at 1077 ½ while November soybeans gained 12 ½ cents at 1048 ½. At one point, November futures were up nearly 51 cents on the week. August soybean meal gained $16.50 for the week at $353.30 and August soybean oil lost 2.90 cents at 43.66 cents
• Weather was likely a factor in today’s move lower as forecasts which had previously shown temperatures reaching the 100’s over the next week have come down to the 90’s. Additionally, better chances of rain have been added to the forecast which will be crucial for pod fill heading into August.
• In soybeans, funds are estimated to have bought back 21,500 contracts over the previous 5 sessions after they reached a new record net short position previously. Funds likely took the opportunity to sell the rally from the past few days and added more back to their short position today.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• The grain complex took a hit today, and wheat was no exception, as all three wheat categories closed with double-digit losses, mirroring declines in corn and soybeans. It appears the rally earlier in the week has lost momentum, and the wheat market, in particular, is facing pressure due to expectations of the largest US crop in eight years, which doesn’t favor significant price recovery.
• The North Dakota spring wheat tour ended with a final yield estimate of 54.5 bpa, a new record since the tour began in 1994, and compares with just 47.4 bpa last year. The USDA’s estimate is actually higher, projecting a 56 bpa yield, which would beat the 50 bpa record from 2022.
• The condition of the French wheat crop fell another 2%, leaving only 50% rated as good to excellent, the lowest rating since 2016. Currently, 41% of the crop has been harvested, significantly behind last year’s pace of 76% at this time. According to some private estimates, the French wheat crop could decline to 25-27 mmt, down from early season estimates of up to 34 mmt.
• SovEcon raised their estimate of Russia’s wheat production by 0.5 mmt to 84.7 mmt. The Black Sea region continues to be warm and dry, particularly in eastern Ukraine and southwest Russia, which could affect their spring wheat crops. Additionally, there are some scattered showers forecasted, but more widespread rains are needed.
• In their weekly release, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that Argentina’s wheat planting is now 98.5% complete, up from 95% the week prior. The planted acreage estimate remains unchanged at 6.3 million hectares, compared to 5.9 million last year.
• The European Commission is now estimating that total grain production in the EU will fall to 271.6 mmt versus the June estimate of 274.7 mmt. Soft wheat production, in particular, is projected at 120.8 mmt for 24/25, down from 121.9 mmt previously.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures bounced back on Friday after seeing double digit losses on Thursday. September, October and November contracts traded into new contract highs on the day with the 2024 Class III average jumping 7 cents to close at $18.71/cwt.
• Spot cheese heads into the weekend unchanged at $1.95/lb but posted a modest weekly gain of 6.1250 cents. Whey closed 3 cents higher to $0.57/lb for its highest close since May of 2022.
• Class IV was uneventful on the day with no trading volume. For now the 2024 Class IV average sits at $20.83/cwt.
• Spot butter fell slightly to $3.09/lb but was up 1.50 cents overall on the week. Powder saw an increase of 0.25 cents to $1.2325/lb on five loads traded.

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Author

Amanda Brill