CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures pulled off session lows to finish slightly higher, supported by good demand tone and buying strength in the wheat market. The March futures have been consolidating just under the 500 level.
• Weekly corn export sales were announced on Thursday morning. The USDA released that new corn sales for the week ending January 30 totaled 1.477 MMT (58.2 mb). This was toward the top end of analyst expectations. Year-over-year, total corn sales are running 28% better than the last marketing year.
• Argentina’s corn crop conditions slipped this week to 25% good, down 3% from last week, and 28% poor, also down 3% from last week. The corn market is still anticipating some production losses with the Argentina corn crop.
• Mexico announced that they have officially dropped restrictions on GMO corn inputs. Previously, the GMO import ban was a concern with possible limitations for imports of U.S. corn, if the ban was enacted.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans traded either side of unchanged today but ultimately closed higher with support from a very strong wheat market. Export sales were disappointing, and harvest progress continues in Brazil despite the wet conditions. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was slightly higher.
• Today’s export sales report saw soybean sales come in towards the lower end of trade estimates. The USDA reported an increase of 14.2 million bushels of soybean sales in 24/25 and none for 25/26. Last week’s export shipments of 43.8 mb were above the 19.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.
• Primary destinations last week for soybean export sales were to China, the Netherlands, and Egypt. With tariffs recently placed on Chinese goods and the potential for more to come, it is possible that Chinese demand will slow down in favor of South American soybeans.
• In Brazil, harvest progress continues despite the wet weather, and expectations for a large crop remain intact. Some fields in Mato Grosso are reporting yields around 62.5 bpa. While progress has been made, transportation bottlenecks are emerging as major highways remain congested with trucks hauling beans.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• All three wheat markets closed higher, holding above the 100-day moving average, driven by cold temperatures moving into the northern Great Plains of the U.S. and ongoing fund short covering.
• Weekly wheat exports came in at 18 mb, which was in line with expectations, with old crop commitments at 683 mb up 8% from YA vs the USDA forecast of up 20%.
• The Black Sea regions in Russia and Ukraine are expected to experience a drop in temperatures starting next week, following an unusually warm winter. Given the less-than-ideal establishment of last fall’s crop in these areas, the need for snow cover has become critical. Snow cover is essential to protect winter crops from damage and ensure their survival during this cold spell.
• The U.S. drought monitor shows increasing dry conditions in the Northern half of the Great Plains and dry conditions coming back in the southern half as well.
• Market concerns continue to weigh heavily on prices as traders closely monitor U.S.-China relations, with ongoing tariff negotiations maintaining tensions over the potential for a trade war.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• US spot butter fell another penny on Thursday to its lowest close since June 2023 at $2.40/lb.
• The Class IV market once again was under duress, with nearby contracts down as many as 30c. Most contracts hit new lows for the move.
• Dairy exports for December 2024 were pretty neutral, coming in down 1% from December 2023 and up 2% from the prior month.
• The Class III market traded mixed on Thursday on a quiet spot cheese trade that saw the block/barrel average close unchanged.
• US spot whey fell 2c to $0.59/lb, which is its lowest close since September.

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Author

Brandon Doherty