CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market saw choppy two-side trade as prices finished mixed on the day. Corn futures faded off early session highs pressured by selling int he wheat and soybean market, but the firm demand tone stayed supportive corn futures.
• The USDA announced a flash sale of corn on Wednesday morning, with Mexico stepping in to purchase 330,000 MT (12.9 mb) for the 2025-26 marketing year.
• The U.S. Census Bureau released corn exports totals for December. The U.S. exported 5.45 MMT (214 mb) of corn in December. This total was a 35-year high for the month and up 33% from the five-year average. Mexico received 34% of the corn shipments while Japan took 21% of that total.
• Weekly ethanol production jumped last week to 1.112 million bpd for the week ending January 31. This was up 9.6% from last week and 7.6% above last year. This was also the third largest weekly production on record. A total of 112 mb of corn was used for weekly production, which is still ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA targets for the marketing year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower and were bear spread with the bulk of losses in the front months. The March contract gave back all of yesterday’s gains but also made a new high for the year earlier this morning. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.
• U.S. soybean exports in December totaled 7.96 million tons, a 68% jump from last year and 8% above the five-year average. China was the largest buyer, accounting for 52% of shipments, followed by Mexico at 8%.
• In Brazil, wet weather continues to slow the soybean harvest, but expectations for a large crop remain intact. While some progress has been made, transportation bottlenecks are emerging as major highways remain congested with trucks hauling beans.
• Funds are likely now long around 70,000 contracts of soybeans which while large, is a far cry from their record net long position of 238,394 contracts in 2020. Speculative traders also now hold a small net long position in soybeans for the first time since late 2023, but the extreme volatility over the past week could cause these funds to take profits and adopt a risk-off approach.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat prices slid today, pressured by a soybean-led decline across the grain complex. March Matif wheat futures offered no support, retreating by four euros/mt in a sharp reversal that erased gains from earlier in the week. Mounting concerns over a potential trade war with China appeared to weigh heavily on the market.
• Census data showed December ’24 wheat exports rising 9% year over year to 61 mb. For the first seven months of the 24/25 marketing year, exports have surged 29% compared to the same period last year, outpacing the USDA’s full-year projection of a 20% increase.
• On a bearish note, China claims to have an excess of wheat due to a better than expected harvest. This caused them to delay or potentially re-sell imports of 10 cargoes (600,000 mt) of wheat to neighboring Asian nations.
• Russia’s wheat export tax as of February 5 as declined 11% to 3,941.6 rubles/mt. Duties on barley and corn were also reduced, with the new values valid until February 11.
• Ukraine’s agriculture minister announced plans to establish a grain processing hub in Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone. This facility is expected to facilitate Ukrainian agricultural exports to countries with trade agreements with Egypt, expanding market access for Ukrainian grain and its derivatives.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures saw gains today, as February added 6 cents to close at $20.34 and March added 8 cents to close at $20.01.
• Spot cheese was down 2 cents today to close at $1.83250/lb. Whey was down 1 cent to close at $0.6100.
• Spot butter also lost 2 cents to close at $2.4100/lb. While powder remained unchanged at $1.3400/lb.
• Class IV futures had a down day as April lost 3 cents to close at $19.88 and May lost 20 cents to close at $19.91.
• Class III milk price settlement for January 2025 came in at $20.34 and Class IV came in at $20.73.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill