CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• For the second consecutive session, corn futures finished higher, holding on to yesterday’s gains. May corn futures gained 2 cents on the session. This is the first time since February 13th that corn futures posted consecutive daily gains. Despite the recent strength, the overall trend in the corn market remains bearish.
• Corn prices were supported by additional short covering and technical buying after Monday’s turn higher and strong price action. Strength in the wheat market spilled over and helped support corn futures. The heavy supply picture and soybean prices fading, limited gains in the corn market on the session.
• The corn market may stay choppy through the end of the week. Squaring up trade for the end of the month, and the influence of price action during first notice day on the March contract will likely keep the market choppy. First notice day is on Thursday this week.
• In Brazil, second crop (safrinha) corn planting progress is running well ahead of the 5-year pace. The Brazil Ag agency, CONAB, reported that planting of the Safrinha corn in Brazil was 59% complete last week. The strong early planting pace and overall friendly weather pattern should get the second crop corn off to a good start.
• Confirmation of China buying Ukrainian corn limited market upside. Prices paid for the purchase were $227-$230/mt including freight. The prices are cheaper than current US export bids

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower after mixed trade throughout the session which saw prices as much as 16 cents higher earlier in the day before soybean meal faded, weighing on soybeans. Soybean oil managed to close higher along with crude oil. The majority of selling pressure was in the front months with November beans unchanged on the day.
• Bullish news early in the day came from the announcement by private exporters of 123,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for 23/24. This was the first flash sale reported in over a week as cheaper Brazilian soybeans take export demand from the US.
• Brazil’s soybean harvest is now estimated at 40% complete which compares with 33% the previous year at this time. With Brazil’s harvest ongoing, cash soybeans have fallen to prices significantly below those in the US, and there have been recent reports of Brazilian soybeans being imported into the US.
• Domestic demand has remained firm thanks to profitable crush margins, despite having narrowed over the past few months. The use of soybean oil as renewable diesel has been supportive to demand.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• All three US wheats were higher again today. Funds may be covering more of their short positions as the technical recovery continues. Additional support may have stemmed from comments by Ukraine’s President Zelensky; he indicated that without US military assistance, they may not be able to defend their humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea.
• Some parts of the US have seen abnormally warm or even record temperatures this month. Areas of Nebraska and the Texas panhandle saw upwards of 80 to 90 degrees, and strong winds may be stressing the HRW crop. And with a major cold front moving through the Midwest over the next 24 hours, there are concerns that some areas may have the opposite problem, frost damage.
• Heavy rain over the weekend hit parts of Australia from the remnant of tropical cyclone, Lincoln. In general, however, soil moisture is lacking in much of the country ahead of wheat planting, with more rain needed in the coming months to recharge moisture levels.
• Several states released their individual winter wheat conditions. Kansas rated their crop 57% good to excellent, up from 54% in the week ending January 28, and just 13% was rated poor to very poor. Colorado and Nebraska saw slight declines, but most states that released data showed improvements.
• Brazil’s wheat imports are said to be on the rise due to a lack of available high quality domestic wheat. According to Secex, Brazil’s wheat imports as of the third week in February totaled 383,950 tons, compared with 291,630 last February. Additionally, exports at just 56.090 million metric tons are well below the 533.42 mmt for the same time period in 2023.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures faced hefty losses today with the second month March contract dropping 30 cents to $17.28. The 2024 Class III average fell 24 cents to $17.81.
• Spot cheese close a penny higher with blocks up 2.00 cents and barrels unchanged, hitting a new 3-month high. Spot whey, however, fell 4.50 cents to $0.4575/lb.
• Class IV futures broke as well with the Q2 contracts all down more than 30 cents. The 2024 average fell 19 cents to $20.60.
• Both Class IV spot products were lower with butter falling 1.50 cents and powder dropping 1.75 cents.

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Author

Brandon Doherty