CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures started the week on a positive note, clawing back some of Friday’s losses as strong demand and tightening supply prospects kept the market supported.
• USDA announced a flash export sale of corn om Manday morning. Mexico stepped into the export market and purchased 365,000 MT (14.4 MB) of U.S. corn for the current marketing year.
• Weekly export inspections remain solid in a seasonally strong window. For the week ending February 6, the USDA reported 1.334 MMT (52.5 MB) inspected, landing at the high end of expectations. Total inspections for the marketing year now sit at 909 MB — up 34% from last year and ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA export projections.
• On Tuesday, the USDA will release the next WASDE report. Expectations are for a slight reduction in corn carryout, reflecting the good pace of demand. The grain markets may be more interested to see if the USDA makes any adjustments to South American production.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the two front months unchanged and the deferred contracts slightly lower. Prices rebounded from overnight lows that followed President Trump’s announcement regarding new tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum. Both soybean meal and oil finished the day slightly lower.
• Estimates for Tomorrow’s WASDE report suggest U.S. soybean ending stocks will decrease by 3 mb to 378 mb, while a potential increase in export demand is also expected. Global ending stocks are projected to remain unchanged or slightly lower. Big changes are not expected after last month’s bombshell yield adjustment.
• In Brazil, weather has begun to dry up as producers continue with harvest. 16.78% of the planted area has now been harvested, and this compares to 23.83% last year at this time. The largest delays are in the country’s biggest producing state of Mato Grosso.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of just 533 contracts of soybeans which increased their net long position to 57,029 contracts as of February 4. Over the past 5 days, funds are estimated to have kept that position mostly unchanged.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower led by Kansas City futures; this was despite the gains in Matif wheat and good export inspections. The US contracts were likely under pressure from expectations for better US and Black Sea snow cover this week, in addition to futures having become technically overbought. Also, tomorrow’s USDA report is expected to be relatively neutral for wheat and did not stir up any buying interest today.
• Weekly wheat inspections at 19.7 mb bring the 24/25 total inspections figure to 535 mb, which is up 24% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, and 24/25 exports are estimated at 850 mb, up 20% from the year prior.
• While frigid temperatures are expected across the U.S. Southern Plains this week, incoming snow should help insulate the winter wheat crop and prevent significant damage, potentially contributing to today’s market weakness. Similar conditions are expected in the Black Sea region.
• On a bullish note, IKAR has reported that Russian wheat export values finished last week $2 higher at $245 per mt. They also decreased their estimate of Russian wheat exports by 0.5 mmt to 43 mmt; for reference the USDA is using a 46 mmt figure. Meanwhile, APK-Inform increased their forecast of Ukrainian 24/25 wheat exports by 0.1 mmt to 14.5 mmt.
• According to consultancy ProZerno, the Russian 2025 grain harvest is estimated at 122.9 mmt, which would be down 1.7% from 2024. Wheat specifically is expected to fall 6% to 77.4 mmt. Additionally, they are expecting about 8.2% of the winter wheat crop to be lost, with a harvest on 16.1 million hectares.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures start the week off higher after selling pressure late last week led to weaker prices. March and April futures both closed 25 cents higher to $19.69 and $19.47 respectively.
• Spot trade for Class III products saw cheese gain 3.875 cents to close at $1.85875/lb while whey was sat unchanged at $0.5875/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were mostly quiet on the day other than fourth quarter contracts which saw losses ranging from 5-21 cents.
• Spot butter was unchanged on Monday at $2.38/lb while powder lost half a penny to go home at $1.3250/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill