MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 24: The CME closes at 12:15 p.m. (CT), and Total Farm Marketing offices close at 1:00 p.m. (CT). There will be no Daily Market Summary.

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 25: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market ended the day mixed after a session of quiet, two-sided trade within a tight 3-cent range. The nearby March contract closed just off the day’s high, supported by solid demand, while Dec ’25 finished mid-range and fractionally lower.
• This morning, the USDA announced private export sales of 132,000 tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
• Export inspections for corn for the week ending December 19 came in at the upper end of expectations at 1.122 million metric tons. While inspections were lower than the same week last year, total inspections remain 27% higher season-to-date.
• With a shortened holiday week and year-end quickly approaching, trade could remain choppy on light volume as traders hesitate to extend their risk, opting instead to square positions ahead of year-end to protect profits.
• Grain markets are scheduled to close at 12:05 PM CST on Tuesday and remain closed until 8:30 AM Thursday for the Christmas holiday.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower, with the front months leading the decline due to bear spreading. There was relatively little news today due to holiday trade, but the US dollar was higher against the Brazilian real, which tends to dampen export demand. Soybean meal was lower, while soybean oil was higher.
• This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
• China is seemingly loading up on US soybeans before potential tariffs take place under the Trump administration. Sinograin has purchased 500,000 tons of US soybeans for delivery in March-April, reportedly preferring the quality of US soybeans. However, there are concerns that export demand may slide next year if tariffs are implemented.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of soybeans. They sold 17,932 contracts, leaving them net short 76,252 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite some strength in the US dollar, all three wheat classes posted solid gains, potentially supported by recent news that Russia intends to cap further wheat exports at 10.6 mmt for the second half of the marketing year, after shipping a record-large 29 mmt in the first half. Sharply higher Matif wheat futures also offered additional support. Volatility may increase given the shortened trading week and lower trade volume surrounding Christmas.
• Weekly wheat inspections of 14.8 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 439 mb, up 34% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace; wheat exports for 24/25 are projected at 850 mb, up 20% year-over-year.
• From a technical perspective, Chicago wheat futures had become oversold following the recent price tumble. Daily stochastics now show a crossover signal, which could indicate a near-term bottom and suggest the market is due for a correction to the upside.
• Last week, managed funds added over 20,000 contracts to their net short position in Chicago wheat, bringing the total short to about 87,000 contracts. This could leave the market primed for a short-covering rally, but fresh bullish news may be needed to ignite it, especially as both the Australian and Argentine wheat crops are larger than last year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mostly lower on Monday with the second month January contract dropping 11 cents to close at $19.71.
• Spot whey was unchanged while the block/barrel average was 0.3750 cents lower to close just above $1.80/lb.
• The Class IV futures were all unchanged today, along with spot powder. Spot butter fell 0.75 cents on 9 loads traded.
• Today’s Cold Storage report had cheese stocks down 7.0% from November 2023 while butter was up slightly YoY.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Brandon Doherty