CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market closed with minor losses after a day of two-sided trade, finding support near the 10-day moving average and yesterday’s close, while facing overhead pressure from lower soybeans and wheat.
• This morning, the USDA reported its first flash sale of corn since Nov. 25. Private exporters reported to the that USDA 170,400 mt (6.7 mb) of corn was sold to Mexico for the 24/25 marketing year.
• Congress reportedly passed a stopgap spending bill funding the government through mid-March, including provisions for year-round E15, potentially boosting annual corn usage by 25–50 mb.
• Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised Argentina’s corn production estimate by 1 mmt to 49 mmt, citing less switching to soybeans, though it remains below the USDA’s 51 mmt forecast.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower, making new contract lows across the board as they broke out of their recent range to the downside. This occurred despite two flash sales reported this morning, as traders focused on favorable Brazilian weather. Soybean meal closed higher, while soybean oil was sharply lower.
• This morning, private exporters reported to the USDA a sale of 187,000 metric tons of soybeans to Spain for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year. Additionally, a sale of 132,000 mt was reported to unknown destinations for the same period.
• According to AgRural, production estimates for the 24/25 Brazilian soybean crop stand at 171.5 mmt, with rains falling over most of the country for a week as planting wrapped up.
• Yesterday’s export inspections report was solid, with soybean inspections totaling 61.6 million bushels for the week ending December 12. This brought total inspections for 24/25 to 927 mb, up 19% from last year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed with modest losses across all three US futures classes, alongside lower corn, soybeans, and Paris milling wheat futures. Soybeans led the grain complex lower, with that weakness likely spilling over into wheat as the market adopted a risk-off posture.
• Wheat traded lower today despite SovEcon cutting its Russian wheat production estimate by 3 mmt to 78.7 mmt, the smallest crop since 2021, if realized. Russian wheat FOB export values have risen over $10 since last week, now at $236 per mt.
• The French farm ministry estimates that its 2025 soft wheat harvested area will increase about 9% year-over-year to 4.51 million hectares, due to better planting weather.
• Since the season began on July 1, Ukraine has exported 19.5 mmt of grain, up 22% year-over-year. Wheat exports specifically total 9.2 mmt, a 37% increase from last year.
• European Union 24/25 soft wheat exports total 10.54 mmt as of December 15, down 31% from the same period last year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Today’s Global Dairy Trade auction event was down 2.80%, which was its worst performance since July. The trade weighted index now sits at 1,219 points.
• Class III milk futures traded higher for much of today’s session before turning in mixed results at the close. January futures closed 21 cents higher at $20.51.
• Spot cheese found some buyers today, gaining 4.6250 cents to close above $1.80/lb for the first time since November 5. Whey was unchanged at $0.7450/lb.
• Class IV futures were mixed on the day. January futures were up 8 cents while the February contract was down 10 cents to close at $20.68 and 20.50 respectively.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill