CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market got a shot in the arm and closed higher for the fourth consecutive day, supported by much lower-than-expected US ending stocks in today’s USDA report.
• The USDA shocked the market by cutting US 24/25 corn carryout by 200 mb to 1.738 bb in today’s WASDE report. Exports were raised by 150 mb, while corn used for ethanol increased by 50 mb.
• The lower carryout number brings 24/25 corn ending stocks below last year’s level, which can be supportive this early in the marketing year.
• While Brazil and Argentina corn production estimates remained unchanged, global corn stocks fell well below expectations to 296.4 mmt due to higher use and lower US supplies.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed higher after a largely uneventful WASDE report, likely supported by bullish corn data. Soybean meal also rose, while soybean oil ended lower.
• The USDA report left soybean production, yield, and ending stocks unchanged at 470 mb. Brazilian production remained at 169.0 mb, while Argentina’s was revised up to 52.0 mb from 51.0 mb.
• CONAB reported Brazilian soybean planting at 94% complete, up 4% from last week, with favorable weather supporting the crop.
• China imported 7.15 mmt of soybeans in November, down 10% from last year and below expectations of 8 mmt. Rumors surfaced of China canceling 4–6 December cargoes from the PNW.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted gains across all categories, supported by a favorable WASDE report, despite strength in the US Dollar Index.
• The USDA lowered US 24/25 wheat carryout to 795 mb from 815 mb, exceeding expectations, while world ending stocks for 23/24 and 24/25 were slightly raised. US wheat exports were increased by 25 mb to 850 mb.
• Global wheat production was reduced from 794.73 mmt to 792.95 mmt. Brazil’s production fell to 8.1 mmt, while Argentina and Australia remained steady at 17.5 mmt and 32.0 mmt, respectively. Russian exports dropped 1 mmt to 47.0 mmt, while Ukraine’s rose 0.5 mmt to 16.5 mmt.
• Egypt’s grain purchasing system has shifted to military control, replacing GASC. As a key wheat supplier, Russia is monitoring potential impacts on its exports.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Just six carloads of dairy products traded on the spot trade on Tuesday as the dairy market continues to be quiet. Butter was flat, cheese was down just 0.125c, and powder fell 0.50c.
• The leader on the day was spot whey, gaining 1.50c to a $0.73/lb close. This is a new high of year close for whey.
• Class IV futures were mixed but the second month January contract was 7 cents higher to $20.77.
• Spot powder was up 1.25 cents to move back under $1.40/lb. Spot butter was unchanged.
• Dairy exports in October were down 2% from October 2023 and down 4% from the previous month.

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Author

Brandon Doherty