CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market finished soft on Tuesday as prices failed to hold early session gains. The lack of direction on biofuel tax credits and increased South American corn production estimates limited market strength.
• Reuters reported that the Biden administration will not finalize clean fuel tax credit guidance, known as the 45Z policy, before his term ends. The uncertainty of this key biofuels initiative has likely kept pressure on the corn market.
• South American weather conditions remain highly favorable for soybeans and corn in Brazil and Argentina. Independent analysts suggest an additional 200–250 mb of combined South American production could be possible next crop year if conditions persist.
• Managed Money has reduced its recent net long position on the Commitment of Trader’s report. As of Nov. 26, managed funds were net long 97,442 contracts of corn, a reduction of 17,186 contracts.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed higher, recovering all of yesterday’s losses and more, with front-month contracts leading gains. Soybean meal and oil also ended higher, with oil leading.
• Brazilian production estimates remain lofty, with Celeres at 170.8 mmt, StoneX at 170 mmt, and AgroConsult at 172.2 mmt. Exports are expected to rise by 4 mmt, supported by favorable weather conditions.
• The USDA Fats and Oils report showed a record October soybean crush of 216 million bushels, exceeding trade estimates. High crush levels have pressured soybean meal prices due to excess supply, while lower-than-expected bean oil stocks signal strong demand.
• Yesterday’s CFTC report showed funds as of Nov. 26 as net sellers of 13,771 soybean contracts, increasing their net short position to 81,472 contracts. Historically, funds shift to buying soybeans in December through year-end.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed mostly higher across the three classes, though early strength faded by session’s end. Gains from higher Paris milling wheat were limited by projections that Australia’s crop could exceed last year’s by 5–6 mmt.
• According to the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report, as of Nov. 26 managed funds sold nearly 7,600 Chicago wheat contracts, and 1,300 KC wheat contracts, increasing their total net short position to a four-month high of 120,000 contracts.
• India’s Meteorological Department forecasts a warmer-than-average winter, which could threaten wheat yields. December–February temperatures are expected to be above normal, impacting the winter wheat crop that thrives in cooler conditions.
• Australia’s wheat production is projected to rise 23% to 31.9 mmt in the fiscal year ending June 2025, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics. This would be 20% above the 10-year average, driven by production increases of 75% in New South Wales and 40% in Western Australia, its largest growing regions.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheese had its biggest daily increase since mid-October, gaining 3.875 cents to close at $1.66.lb.
• The strong cheese trade had buyers active in the nearby Class III contracts with December up 27 cents while January closed 42 cents higher.
• Spot butter jumped 2.75 cents to close back above the $2.50/lb mark while powder fell a couple pennies to $1.3750/lb.
• Class IV futures saw only December close higher while the first half of 2025 fell 7 to 18 cents.

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Author

Amanda Brill