TFM Daily Market Summary 11-29-2024

 

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

 

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Corn futures saw buying strength to end November as the December and March contracts saw moderate gains. For the week, December corn finished the week approximately 2 cents lower, but nearly 9 cents off the lows for the week.
  • Today was First Notice Day for December corn, and prices bounced as long positions have been removed from the market. Open interest in the December contract has gone from 270,000+ contracts on Monday to less than 20,000 contracts on the open today. With Dec in delivery, traders will shift focus to the most actively traded March contract.
  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Friday morning. The USDA reported new corn sales of 1.06 MMT (41.8 mb) for the week ending November 21. This was at the low end of expectations. Total corn sales have been strong, trending 33% above last year’s levels.
  • Export demand and ethanol production continue to support corn markets, helping prices recover from recent lows and providing a foundation heading into year-end.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybeans ended the day with front-month gains and deferred-month losses, reflecting a bull spread. Limited carry in the market signals expectations of abundant supplies next year. Soybean meal was lower to end the day while soybean oil finished higher. Strong soybean crush numbers continue to create a glut of bean meal.
  • Today’s Export Sales report was strong for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 91.5 million bushels of soybean export sales for the 24/25 marketing year and 0.7 mb for 25/26. This was above the high end of analyst estimates. Last week’s export shipments of 76.5 mb were well above the 29.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and Germany.
  • For the week, January soybeans gained 7-1/4 cents to $9.90-3/4 while March only gained 5 cents. January soybean meal gained $1.70 to $293.20 and January soybean oil lost 0.08 cents to 41.76 cents.
  • The USDA announced a large daily export sale for soybeans before the session this morning. The USDA announced sales of 840,000 MT (30.8 mb) and 151,700 MT (5.6 mb) of soybeans for unknown destinations for the 2024-25 marketing year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Wheat ended weaker after mixed trading, following Matif wheat’s third consecutive decline. However, the falling US Dollar Index and oversold technicals may provide support at current levels.
  • The USDA reported 13.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, with weekly shipments at 15.9 mb, just below the 16.5 mb needed to meet the 825 mb export goal. Commitments are up 20% year-over-year at 557 MB.
  • As reported by Tass, Russian wheat exports are expected to his 25.3 mmt so far this season. That is 1.7 mmt higher than last year. In addition, they are projecting total Russian wheat exports this season at 41.7 mmt.
  • According to FranceAgriMer, an estimated 93% of the French soft wheat crop has been planted as of Monday. This is ahead of last year’s 81% pace for the same time period and is also slightly ahead of the 91% five-year average. Of the crop, 87% are rated good or very good, slightly below last year’s 88%.
  • The European Commission raised its 24/25 EU grain production forecast to 256.9 mmt from 255.6 mmt in October, while soft wheat was lowered slightly to 112.3 mmt. Durum wheat estimates remain unchanged at 7.2 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • NO DAIRY UPDATE TODAY

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Author

Brandon Doherty

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