HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The December corn market finished lower for the fifth straight session. First Notice Day on Friday and basis contract pricing likely pressured the market, leading to the lowest close since November 4. Open interest in the December contract has dropped by over 200,000 contracts since the start of the week as traders are moving aside long positions.
• The US dollar made a strong correction lower on Thursday as the prospect of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates sent profit taking in the Japanese yen versus US dollar trade. Expectations are for the dollar to remain firm, but the setback could help support commodity prices.
• With President Trump looking to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico imports as part of his Day 1 initiative, Mexico’s President Sheinbaum warned of retaliatory tariffs to counter. Mexico is the largest export buyer of US corn this marketing year.
• The USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning, delayed due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Corn sales have been strong to start the marketing year, but slowing as higher prices and strong dollar has hurt competitiveness. The market will be watching to see if this trend will continue.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed higher ahead of Thanksgiving, diverging from weaker corn and wheat markets. Gains in soybean meal offset a sharp 4.19% drop in soybean oil, which followed palm oil lower. This contrasted with yesterday’s soybean oil rally sparked by potential import tariffs on China’s used cooking oil.
• This morning, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year. Export sales have tapered off slightly over the past few weeks but remain firm.
• Brazilian Crop analyst, Dr. Michael Cordonnier, raised his 24/25 Brazilian soybean production forecast by 2.0 mmt to 168.0 mmt, citing a strong start and ideal weather in key growing regions. The 10-15 day forecast for central Brazil has turned slightly drier which could add some weather premium if it continued.
• Rain is expected over the next couple of weeks in the dry areas of Paraguay, Argentina, and southern Brazil, which could result in 2-4 inches of rain. This has some analysts projecting between 700-750 mb of increased soybean production for South America when compared to last year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite the US Dollar Index plunging to a two-week low today, US wheat could not find any footing. Pressure stemmed from a lower trade for Matif wheat futures as well as the fact that First Notice Day for December grain contracts is Friday. With markets closed for Thanksgiving tomorrow, this may have added some selling pressure, as anyone long at the close today is at risk of delivery on Friday.
• Weakness in wheat was also tied to improved US winter wheat conditions. Monday’s Crop Progress report rated 55% good-to-excellent—the highest in four years—bolstered by recent Southern Plains rainfall.
• Ongoing harvest in the Southern Hemisphere may have also pressured wheat today. Both Australia and Argentina are harvesting, but Argentina’s peso has also reached a record low level, resulting in falling wheat export values.
• According to their agricultural ministry, the export duty on Russian wheat has risen to 3,020.3 rubles per ton from 2,689.7 rubles previously, a 12.3% increase. The duty on corn also increased, while it fell for barley. These rates are said to be valid until December 3.
• The European Commission has said that EU soft wheat exports as of November 24 have reached 9.2 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 30% decrease from last year’s 13.1 mmt total. Top destinations for the wheat exports include Nigeria, the UK, and Egypt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures closed lower, giving back any of yesterday’s gains.
• Spot cheese ended the day lower as well, closing down 4.3750 cents at $1.62375/lb. Spot whey gained another 2 cents to close at $0.71/lb.
• Class IV futures regained some of yesterday’s losses, with January up 17 cents, closing at $20.63.
• Spot butter gained 0.75 cents to close at $2.4925/lb while spot powder improved 0.50 cents to close at $1.3950/lb.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill