HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market finished lower for the fourth straight day, with March futures testing 100-day moving average support. First Notice Day on Friday and basis contract pricing likely pressured the market, leading to the lowest close for March futures in November.
• President-elect Trump announced a Day 1 tariff plan, proposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports. The prospect of retaliation likely limited grain positive price action.
• Brazil’s soybean planting is 85% complete, well ahead of last year. The early pace should keep second-crop (safrinha) corn planting on schedule for key summer weather.
• A strong US dollar has made US corn less competitive globally. While export sales remain solid, concerns are rising about a potential demand slowdown in early 2025 if the dollar strengthens further.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended mixed, with front months slightly lower and deferred months higher. Trade was volatile, with prices dropping up to seven cents after the open but recovering into the close. Soybean meal gave back yesterday’s gains, while soybean oil surged 1.38 cents in the January contract.
• President-elect Trump’s Day 1 tariff plan, proposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports, likely weighed on grain markets during the session.
• Soybean product prices have driven recent soybean movements. Soybean oil rose over 3% on the session, supporting bean prices, while soybean meal fell nearly 2% in the front-month contract.
• With planting well ahead of last year’s pace, Brazilian weather stays favorable in the near term with little weather risk to the early soybean crop.
• Brazilian Crop analyst, Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his 24/25 Brazilian soybean production forecast by 2.0 mmt to 168.0 mmt, citing a strong start and ideal weather in key growing regions.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• The wheat complex settled mid-range after trading on both sides of unchanged as the market balanced the best crop ratings for the week in six years, with a dry forecast and lower export estimates out of Russia.
• The USDA reported winter wheat conditions as of November 24 at 55% good to excellent, the highest rating for this week in six years. The crop is also 97% planted, with 89% emergence.
• Weather across much of the winter wheat areas is expected to be drier than normal through the first week of December, with normal to above-normal temperatures in the Plains states and cooler temperatures in the East.
• SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports to 44.1 mmt from 45.9 mmt, anticipating stricter export quotas. It was also noted that Russia has reduced its export quotas mid-season in recent years to protect domestic supplies.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures mostly traded higher on Tuesday after yesterday’s Cold Storage report was friendly for cheese. December futures gained 39 cents to close at $18.80.
• Spot cheese was unchanged at $1.6675/lb. Whey gained 3 cents to trade into another new year high at $0.69/lb.
• Class IV futures were weaker with the February contract seeing the largest loss of 35 cents to close at $20.60.
• Spot butter dropped 3 cents to close at $2.4850/lb while powder improved 1.50 cents to close at $1.39/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill