TFM Daily Market Summary 11-22-2024

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Corn futures finished softer, with potentially slowing demand and options expiration limiting prices. On weekly charts, corn remains in a consolidation pattern, finishing 1 ½ cents higher for the week.
  • December corn options expired today, and there was a large amount of open interest between the 420, 425, and 430 strike prices for both calls and puts, which seemed to hold prices throughout the week.
  • Concerns about slowing demand may weigh on the corn market heading into year-end. While export sales have been strong early in the marketing year, the USDA has not announced a flash sale since November 13. Additionally, weekly ethanol production declined for the first time in weeks as higher corn prices and lower energy prices squeezed profit margins.
  • The corn market may face increased volatility next week, with December First Notice Day on Friday likely driving activity and money flow amid shortened trading hours following Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybeans ended higher, snapping a three-day losing streak. January soybeans hit a fresh low overnight before recovering, likely on fund short covering ahead of the weekend. Soybean meal closed higher, while soybean oil continued to track lower palm oil.
  • The USDA reported a flash sale of 198,000 mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year, following three separate sales yesterday to China, unknown destinations, and the Philippines.
  • Yesterday’s export sales report showed soybean sales at 68.3 mb, at the high end of expectations. Top buyers were China, Mexico, and the Netherlands, bringing year-to-date commitments to 1.161 billion bushels, up 9% from last year versus the USDA’s 8% estimate.
  • South American weather remains largely favorable for crop development and planting progress. Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 35.8% of the soybean crop is planted, up from 20.1% last week.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • The wheat complex closed lower across the board as traders squared positions ahead of the weekend, with little fresh bullish news from the Black Sea region and reports of strong yields in Australia.
  • While there were no new escalations in the Black Sea, reports indicate Russian President Putin called yesterday’s ICBM attack a successful test and plans to continue testing in combat situations.
  • Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry reported grain exports this season are up 43% year-over-year at 17.2 mmt. Of that, 8.6 mmt was wheat, a 57% increase from the same time last year.
  • Western Australia’s wheat crop is projected to exceed earlier expectations, with the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia estimating 24/25 production at 10.33 mmt — roughly 1 mmt higher than September’s forecast.
  • Argentina’s wheat harvest is progressing, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reporting 29.3% of the expected 18.6 mmt crop now harvested.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Class III milk futures were lower again heading into the weekend. December futures lost an additional 21 cents on the day for a total loss of 31 cents on the week.
  • Spot cheese saw sellers hit the market for a second straight day. Cheese dropped 3.375 cents to close at $1.6475/lb, which is its lowest close since April.
  • The whey market is doing its best to keep some support on the Class III side, trading at its highest level since March of 2022 at $0.66/lb.
  • Class IV futures were relatively quiet despite a fifth down day in a row for butter. December futures lost 6 cents to close at $20.58.
  • Spot butter lost 0.75 cents to close at $2.54/lb which is a penny off the low of the year. Powder lost 1.25 cents to close at $1.375/lb.

 

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Author

Amanda Brill

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