CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures edged higher on Wednesday, marking their highest close since November 8. The 430-price level December continues to cap gains as sellers step in near this point.
• Weekly ethanol production dropped to 1.110 million barrels/day for the week ending November 15, down 3.27 million from the prior week but 8.5% higher than last year. Corn use totaled 111.6 mb, approximately 15.9 mb/day, above the pace needed to meet the USDA’s yearly ethanol grind target.
• The USDA will release weekly corn export sales Thursday, with expectations between 1.0 and 2.2 mmt. Last week’s 1.35 mmt sales were a bit disappointing, possibly due to a stronger US dollar reducing competitiveness.
• The cereal grain markets, corn and wheat, will be keeping a close eye on geo-political tensions between Ukraine and Russia. A possible escalation of the ongoing war between the two would likely be supportive for both cereal grain markets.
• The corn market may see an increase in volatility this week as December options expire Friday and First Notice Day nears next week, which could bring an increase in activity and money flow.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower for the second day, with January contracts near session lows and 17 cents above the August contract low. Pressure came from weaker soybean oil, dragged down by lower palm oil, while soybean meal ended slightly higher.
• The USDA reported private export sales totaling 202,000 mt of soybeans to China and 226,200 mt to unknown destinations, both for 24/25 delivery.
• Abiove raised its 24/25 Brazil soybean production estimate to 167.7 mmt, surpassing CONAB’s 166.14 mmt projection. If realized, this record crop could boost exports to 104.1 mmt according to the firm.
• China’s October US soybean imports surged to 541,434 mt, nearly doubling last year, as buyers accelerated purchases amid trade tension concerns. Imports from Brazil totaled 8.09 mmt, maintaining its position as China’s top supplier.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• US wheat posted modest gains despite a strong day and positive reversal for Matif wheat futures, with a higher US Dollar Index likely keeping wheat prices in check.
• Wheat harvests in Australia and Argentina continue to pressure US markets, with Argentina’s wheat export values dropping $6 to $216/mt, making US wheat less competitive globally.
• EU soft wheat exports reached 8.79 mmt for the season as of November 17, down 31% from 12.7 mmt during the same period last year, according to the European Commission.
• Houthi rebels launched two separate unsuccessful missile attacks on a grain vessel en route from Ukraine to Pakistan on November 17 and 18, escalating regional tensions.
• Russia’s wheat export duty increased 4.7%, from 2,569.2 to 2,689.7 Rubels per mt starting November 20. In 2021 Russia initiated floating duties on exports of corn, barley, and wheat, with the funds going to subsidize agriculture producers.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures had gains today with December up 19 cents to close at $19.15.
• Spot Cheese gained 0.3750 cents today to close at $1.72750/lb. Whey remained unchanged at $0.64/lb.
• Butter lost 3.25 cents to close at 2.5500/lb. Powder remained unchanged at $1.4000/lb.
• Class IV had little volume traded today with December closing unchanged at $21.00.
• USDA released October 2024’s production report today, showing milk production was up 0.2% compared to October 2023.

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Author

Brandon Doherty