CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn gained early strength from a higher wheat market driven by rising Black Sea war tensions but succumbed to potential profit-taking as it hit resistance above 430 CZ. Additional pressure came from lower-trading soybeans.
• Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reported that the country’s corn acres are expected to expand next year by 500,000 hectares (1.2 million acres), primarily from soybean acres.
• The December/March corn spread traded to -9 ¾ cents, its strongest level in eleven months before fading midday, as strong demand supports basis and spreads with processors and exporters working to keep supply lines filled.
• The corn market may see an increase in volatility this week as December options expire Friday and First Notice Day nears next week, which could bring an increase in activity and money flow.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended lower after mixed trade, with early overnight gains erased by pressure from weaker soybean oil and slightly lower meal. Prices remain near the $10 mark as favorable South American weather weighs on the market, while strong demand provides underlying support.
• Brazil’s Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro announced plans to unveil farm agreements and potential export deals with China, covering various ag products. This comes amid rising tensions involving Russia, the US, and China.
• Brazil’s 24/25 soybean planting reached 80% by November 14, up from 67% a week ago and 68% last year. Weather remains favorable, with consistent rain in central regions supporting the crop.
• As of the latest CFTC report, managed funds held a net short position of 55,000 contracts. Since November 12, funds have been relatively quiet, adding an estimated 5,000 short contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat faded from early strength to close slightly higher across all three classes, mirroring Paris milling wheat futures. A lack of fresh news and ongoing Southern Hemisphere harvests may be capping gains.
• According to the USDA, as of November 17, 94% of the US winter wheat crop was planted, in line with last year but slightly below the 96% average. Emergence reached 84%, matching the average but 1% below last year. The crop is rated 49% good to excellent, up 5% from last week and the highest for this time of year in six years.
• Black Sea tensions continue to add war premium to wheat. Reports indicate Ukraine used a US long-range missile to strike a Russian ammunition depot, raising concerns of further conflict escalation.
• Cereals Canada projects the 2024 wheat crop at 34.3 mmt, 4% above last year and 8% above the five-year average. Exports could reach 25.4 mmt, potentially making Canada the world’s third-largest wheat exporter.
• Ukraine’s deputy agriculture minister estimates the 2025 wheat crop could reach 25 mmt, up from 22 mmt in 2024, due to an expected increase in planted area to 5 million hectares from 4.6 million hectares.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures gave back as much as 46c of the recent two-day rally following the results of the Global Dairy Trade auction on Tuesday.
• The GDT auction results were mostly positive, with the overall index up 1.90% and more increases for butter and powder. A 3.10% decline in cheese, however, turned the US market sour.
• Despite the drop in milk futures, the US spot cheese block/barrel average did have its third up day in a row. The market currently sits at $1.72375/lb compared to the GDT’s $2.19 price.
• The market will now await the results of the Milk Production report due out tomorrow afternoon.
• US spot whey and powder both closed unchanged on no loads traded.

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Author

Amanda Brill