CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Sellers jumped into the corn market, and commodities in general, as December corn posted its largest negative day since mid-October. The rising US dollar, and a technical break in price pressured the corn market for the session.
• The US dollar continues to climb, trading at its highest level since November 2023. The strong dollar limits US export competitiveness and can trigger producer selling in Brazil and Argentina with the weak relationship of their currency versus the dollar. The increased selling pace makes more bushels available to the export market to compete with US supplies.
• The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on tomorrow morning, delayed from today due to the Veterans Day holiday. Expectations for new corn sales last week range from 1.25 – 2.6 mmt as corn export business has remained active.
• Weekly ethanol production remains strong, with last week’s output rising to 1.113 million barrels per day — above expectations and marking a marketing-year high. A total of 112 mb of corn was used for ethanol production last week, putting usage ahead of USDA targets.
• The corn market may stay pressured as the month of November brings December options expiration, and the pricing window for basis and price later contracts. As producers make decisions on these positions, it could lead to selling pressure and volatility in the corn market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply lower after trading higher overnight, slipping steadily throughout the day. January soybeans are now trading just 14 cents above their contract low, during a period when prices often begin to rise toward year-end. Both soybean meal and oil also ended the day lower.
• Soybean meal prices remain under pressure as increased crushing for oil has boosted supplies, while favorable weather forecasts for South America, major exporters of the product, have also weighed on the market. The front month December meal contract has now traded to its lowest point since August 2020.
• This morning the USDA reported a flash sale showing that private exporters sold 176,000 mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 24/25 marketing year.
• NOPA will release October crush totals on Friday, with expectations for a record month. Estimates suggest 196.84 mb of soybeans were crushed, which, if realized, would be up 11% from September and 3.7% from October 2023. Soybean oil stocks are also forecasted to increase after hitting record lows in September.
• The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Friday morning, delayed due to the Veterans Day holiday. Expectations for new soybean sales last week range from 1.0 to 2.2 mmt. Trends will be closely watched as weekly sales have declined steadily after peaking a few weeks ago.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• It was another down day for wheat, along with the rest of the grain complex. Part of the weakness may stem from talk about potential peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, the US Dollar Index rose again to a one-year high, keeping pressure on US commodity markets.
• According to Reuters, Australia may produce about 1 mmt more wheat than previously estimated, with harvest 15%-20% complete and showing high yields. Frost damage from September appears less severe than anticipated. Last year’s wheat harvest was 26 mmt, and the USDA projects 32 mmt this year, making Australia the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter.
• SovEcon is reported to have lowered their estimate of Russian 2024 wheat production by 0.1 mmt to 81.4 mmt. However, they also increased their 2025 estimate by 1.5 mmt to 81.6 mmt.
• Traders recently received updated data from South America: CONAB lowered Brazil’s wheat crop estimate by 0.15 mmt to 8.11 mmt, while the Rosario Grain Exchange cut Argentina’s forecast by 0.7 mmt to 18.8 mmt (the USDA projects 17.5 mmt). The Brazilian wheat harvest is about 80% complete, and Argentina’s is 15% complete.
• Recent rains have caused drought readings to fall significantly for winter wheat. According to the USDA, as of November 12, about 43% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought, down from 57% a week ago. However, spring wheat area in drought increased by 1% from last week to 42%.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• While spot whey pushed to a new high of $0.6550/lb with a 3.25 cent gain, spot cheese fell 2 cents to $1.6650/lb.
• Class III futures were on the defensive again with a 22 cent drop in the second month December contract.
• The Class IV spot trade was mixed with a 3 cent drop in butter and 1.50 cent gain in spot powder.
• Futures on the Class IV side were either unchanged or closed lower today. December fell 6 cents to $21.05.

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Author

Amanda Brill