CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures traded lower for the third consecutive day as weakness in the wheat market and seasonal selling pressure outweighed a friendly daily export sale announcement.
• The USDA announced a pair of corn export sales this morning. Mexico purchased 401,357 mt (15.8 mb) of corn, and unknown destinations added 290,820 mt (11.5 mb), with both sales for the current marketing year.
• On the weekly crop progress numbers released on Tuesday, the current corn harvest is estimated to be 95% complete, versus 86% a year ago and 84% for the 5-year average.
• Grain markets have been under pressure reacting to the potential appointees to positions in the Trump administration. It was announced on Tuesday the Former congressmen Lee Zeldon was tabbed to the head of the EPA. As a congressman, Rep. Zeldin has a history of supporting legislation that could limit the impact of biofuels.
• The corn market could have limited upside as the month of November brings December options expiration, and the pricing window for basis or price later contracts. As producers make decisions on these positions, it could lead to selling pressure and volatility in the corn market.
• U.S. dollar continues to climb, trading at its highest levels since May. The strong dollar limited U.S. export competitiveness and can trigger producer selling in Brazil and Argentina with the weak relationship of foreign currency versus the dollar.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower for the third consecutive day but found support near the 20-day moving average, bouncing off their lows to end with a small loss. The recent downtrend may stem from a lack of flash sales after several active weeks. Both soybean meal and oil also closed lower, with soybean oil posting the larger loss.
• Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed the soybean crop at 96% harvested. This compares to 94% last week, the 5-year average of 91%, and was within the range of average trade guesses. With harvest virtually complete, trade will look for a potential post-harvest rally.
• In Brazil, the soybean crop is reportedly 67% planted as of Nov 7, according to AgRural. This compares to 54% a week ago and 61% the previous year. It has been impressive to see how quickly planting has rebounded after the weather delays. Production is expected to reach 168.3 mmt.
• China’s COFCO estimates that the country’s soybean imports may drop by 9.5% for the 24/25 marketing year. Officials also stated that Chinese buyers stockpiled soybeans ahead of the US elections out of concern for deteriorating relations with the US.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat again posted double-digit losses in the Chicago futures, with smaller losses in Kansas City and Minneapolis. Sharply lower Matif wheat futures offered no support to the U.S. market, nor did another move higher in the US Dollar. Additionally, improvements in winter wheat crop conditions contributed to the weakness.
• According to the USDA, as of November 10, 91% of the US winter wheat crop has been planted, slightly behind last year’s 92% pace and the 93% average. Of the planted crop, 76% has emerged, also trailing last year and the average, both at 79%. Recent rains improved conditions, raising the good-to-excellent rating by 3% from last week to 44%. Additional moisture expected over the next week could further boost conditions.
• Russia’s wheat export values are reportedly at $226 per mt for December and $230 for January. These prices fall well below the government-suggested minimum, maintaining pressure on the export market. Additionally, EU and Argentina FOB values are now close to Russia’s, which is also bearish for the US market.
• On a bullish note, India’s domestic wheat prices have hit a record high due to strong demand and limited supply. In September, the Indian government reduced the amount of stocks that traders and millers could hold to curb prices. However, this measure appears to have been less effective than anticipated, and the government may need to release wheat from its reserves to control prices. This situation also reinforces the possibility that India may need to become a net wheat importer in the future.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures had continued pressure in today’s trade closing down, losing all gains from yesterday.
• Spot cheese fell 1.5 cents today closing at $1.6850/lb. Whey lost 0.25 cents today to close at $0.6225/lb.
• Class IV markets held a similar trend to Class III, ending the day in the red throughout all contracts.
• Spot Butter was the only spot market to close up today gaining 3.25 cents to close at $2.63/lb, while powder lost 1 cent to close at $1.3900/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg