CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market extended its rally for the fourth consecutive day, with the December contract closing just above the mid-point of the day’s 5 ¾ cent range as strong weekly export sales and another flash sale kept upward momentum in place.
• This morning the USDA reported weekly export sales as of October 17. New sales for the 24/25 marketing year were strong, coming in above expectations at 141.8 mb (3.603 mmt) Sales for the 25/26 marketing year were near the low end of expectations at 22.8 mb (581,000 mt). The strong combined sales mark the fifth-largest weekly sales total in the last twenty years.
• Keeping in the theme of strong US corn demand, the USDA announced new private export sales of corn totaling 165,000 mt to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year. This marks the seventh consecutive day with announced flash sales of corn.
• Basis levels for corn continue to remain firm in the Midwest, reflecting strong demand for fresh supplies at processors and the slowing pace of farmer sales as they remain busy considering harvest weather remains favorable.
• November options expire on Friday. While corn futures lack a November contract, there is a November options contract tied to December futures, with significant open interest at the 420 strike price. This could lead to added volatility around the 420 level in December futures as options trading wraps up.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were mixed to end the day after opening significantly higher. The November contract ended the day slightly lower while January was unchanged, and the deferred contracts ended slightly higher. Solid exports this morning pushed prices higher, but they began to slide around midday. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher. This was the lowest close for December meal since August 29.
• Today’s Export Sales report showed another week of strong sales in soybeans. The USDA reported an increase of 79.1 million bushels of soybean export sales for 24/25 which was at the upper range of analyst expectations. Last week’s export shipments of 89.9 mb were well above the 35.9 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, unknown destinations, and Japan.
• This morning, private exporters reported a sale of 198,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year. This follows two sales reported yesterday which were for 130,000 mt and 259,000 mt to China and unknown destinations respectively. Good export demand has been a large source of support for soybeans and corn recently.
• The US ag attaché in Brazil is now estimating that the 24/25 soybean crop in the country will be 161 mmt. This estimate has been increased from 160 mmt in the previous estimate. While planting had a late start in Brazil, the pace has picked back up quickly with steady rains.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Except for deferred Kansas City contracts, wheat closed higher across the board today, and this is despite trading both sides of neutral through the session. The US Dollar Index did finally take a breather today, which may have eased some pressure on the wheat market.
• The USDA reported an increase of 19.6 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 10.2 mb fell under the 14.9 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 825 mb. Wheat sales commitments have reached 481 mb for 25/25 which is up 18% from last year.
• According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, recent heavy rains in key growing regions of Argentina were a “game changer” for corn and wheat farmers. Reportedly, between 30-90 millimeters of rain was received in the last 24 hours. This is said to be crucial for wheat, which is in the last few weeks of yield development before harvest begins in November.
• The US ag attaché for Australia has estimated their 24/25 wheat harvest at 28.5 mmt, which falls under the USDA’s forecast of 32 mmt, and is also 1.9 mmt below the 10-year average. Additionally, the attaché has Australian wheat exports at 20 mmt, down from the USDA’s estimate of 25 mmt.
• According to the USDA, as of October 22, an estimated 58% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions – this is up from 52% last week. In addition, drought in spring wheat areas has also increased from 32% to 37% for the same time period.
• Since the season began on July 1, Ukrainian grain exports have totaled 13.3 mmt in the face of an ongoing war. This is up 60% year on year from just 8.3 mmt in the same timeframe last year, according to their ag ministry. Wheat in particular is up 77% year on year with 7.3 mmt of exports. With this said, there is some concern about the winter crops that are currently being planted. According to APK-Inform, almost all seedlings are underdeveloped due to the impacts of drought this summer and fall.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Sellers held the day in the Class III market with small to moderate losses on all active contracts. November fell 13 cents to $20.27.
• Spot cheese was lower again, entering Friday down 7 cents on the week at $1.8975/lb. Whey was up a quarter-cent to $0.6050/lb.
• Class IV futures were unchanged to lower with the second month contract down 11 cents to $21.01.
• Spot butter enters Friday down just a penny on the week after losing a half-cent today, while spot powder was unchanged today and down 2 cents for the week so far.

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Author

John Heinberg