CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market failed to follow through on yesterday’s strength as strong selling in the wheat and soybean market limited potential price gains. Price action saw December corn fail at overhead resistance near 408, before slipping lower on the session. For the week, December corn lost 11 cents total.
• Weekly export sales were strong for corn at 87.6 mb (2.225 mmt) for the week ending October 10. This total was above the high end of analysts’ expectations. Total sales are up 23% from last year and ahead of the pace to reach USDA 24/25 targets.
• The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn before the session, with 125,000 mt (10.8 mb) purchased by unknown destinations for the current marketing year. This marks the fifth flash sale announced this week, as demand picked up around the 400 December futures price.
• Corn harvest is expected to progress steadily as favorable weather conditions persist. The influx of new bushels into the pipeline will likely limit upside price potential in the corn market. Last week, the US corn harvest was 47% complete, and that figure is likely to increase again this week.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The soybean market turned lower today, erasing yesterday’s gains but still holding above the November contract’s low of 968 ¼ from yesterday. Hedge pressure heading into the weekend, along with sharply lower soybean oil and a bearish reversal in meal, also contributed to the weakness.
• The USDA’s weekly Export Sales report, released this morning, showed new soybean sales as of October 10 at 62.6 mb (1.703 mmt), with exports totaling 68 mb (1.853 mmt). New sales increased by 35% from the previous week and were 16% above the 4-week average, while exports were up 9% from last week and significantly higher than the 4-week average.
• The USDA also reported private export sales of 21,000 mt of soybean oil to Mexico for delivery in the 24/25 marketing year, along with 292,800 mt of soybeans sold to unknown destinations, also for 24/25 delivery.
• Safras & Mercado increased its Brazilian soybean export estimate by 10 mmt to 107 mmt, just above the USDA’s estimate of 105 mmt. The firm also raised its Brazilian crush estimate to 55.5 mmt versus the USDA’s 54 mmt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed sharply lower today, led by the Chicago contract and further pressured by lower Paris milling wheat futures. The weakness was driven by news that Russia’s grain exporting union intends to sell wheat directly to “sovereign buyers.” Member companies of Russia’s grain union account for roughly 80% of the country’s grain exports. This announcement could affect 13 countries and potentially limit US sales to these nations. According to Reuters, “non-Russian winners of international tenders will receive Russian grain only if they have long-term off-take agreements with Russian firms.”
• US weekly wheat export sales were delayed until this morning due to Monday’s Columbus Day holiday. The USDA reported an increase of 18.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week of 14.4 mb fell below the 14.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. Additionally, sales commitments have reached 461 mb, which is up 17% from last year.
• In other bearish news, Russia may be dumping additional wheat onto the market to avoid a tax hike on exports, and rains are forecasted for the US HRW wheat growing regions. Furthermore, customs data shows that Chinese wheat imports for September totaled 250,000 mt, down 60% year-over-year for that month. However, year-to-date imports are up 5.5% at 10.74 mmt.
• The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia, in their monthly report, has increased their estimate of Western Australia’s 2024 wheat production from 9.3 to 9.91 mmt last month. This state is Australia’s largest wheat production region, and recent rains are cited as the reason for the increase. They also stated that production could continue to grow if conditions remain favorable. Aside from this update, wheat production for the entirety of Australia is expected to increase 18% year over year according to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Now estimated at 30.62 mmt, this rise in the estimate is also attributed to favorable rains in both Western Australia and New South Wales.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mostly weaker heading into the weekend. The November contract saw the biggest loss at 27 cents giving back most of its gains from Thursday closing at $21.19.
• Spot cheese went unchanged on the day at $1.9675/lb which limited any upside potential in the Class III market. Spot whey gained 0.75 cents to close at $0.6025/lb.
• Class IV futures were able to see a slight bump higher on Friday. November and December contracts saw a gain of 10 cents and 11 cents to close at $21.26 and $21.30 respectively.
• Spot butter lost 2 cents today to close at $2.66/lb. Powder gained 2 pennies to see its highest close since September 23rd at $1.38/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty