CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market ended its four-day selling streak as prices held the key 400 level in the December futures and back tested resistance during the session. A large export purchase, and a firm wheat market helped support corn futures.
• The USDA announced two flash sales of corn this morning. Mexico purchased 1.623 mmt (66.9 mb) of corn split between the current and the next marketing year; 1,043 mmt (41.1 mb) for the 24/25 marketing year and 579,120 mt (22.8 mb) for the 25/26 marketing year. In addition, unknown destinations purchased 332,000 mt (13.1 mb) for the 24/25 marketing year. The large Mexico purchase was anticipated as Mexico seasonally makes a large purchase in this window, which limited any price gains.
• US corn harvest continues to move a long rapidly. On Tuesday’s Crop Progress report, the USDA stated that corn harvest was 47% complete, up 17% from last week and 8% above 5-year average. Harvest pressure and a large crop forecast will continue to limit prices in the corn market.
• Brazil Ag Agency, CONAB, released its forecast for the 24/25 corn crop on Tuesday. CONAB expects corn production to increase to 119.74 mmt, up 4 mmt (3.5%) from last year’s totals despite a slightly lower planted area forecast.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for the fifth consecutive day as funds continue to pressure markets as a result of improved South American weather. Both the November and January contracts are now below $10.00 and are technically oversold. November soybeans have lost over 85 cents from their high at the beginning of the month. Soybean meal ended the day slightly higher while soybean oil was lower.
• This morning, the USDA reported a private export sale of 175,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. While this followed yesterday’s flash sale to China of 131,000 metric tons, it has not been enough to support futures.
• Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed that the soybean crop is now 67% harvested. This was ahead of the average trade guess of 64%. The harvested number is also above last year’s pace of 57% and the 5-year average of 51%. Dry weather has enabled producers to accelerate harvest.
• In Brazil, rain has fallen steadily over the past 7 days with more in the upcoming forecast. The central regions which contain the primary soybean producing states had previously been very dry but have gotten over 1 inch in most areas.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat gained roughly 3–5 cents across all three US classes today. As has been the case recently, US wheat may have followed Matif contracts, which rose 0.50 to 1.50 euros per mt in today’s session. The rally could also be attributed to a bounce off technical support levels, as December contracts in all three classes tested support near their 40 and 50-day moving averages before recovering.
• As of October 13, 64% of the US winter wheat crop is planted, according to the USDA. This is slightly behind last year’s pace of 65% and the 5-year average of 66%. Additionally, 35% of the crop has emerged, also trailing last year’s 36% and the average pace of 38%.
• Russia’s grain exporters union has set a consensus indicator price of $240 per mt FOB for wheat exports in October, increasing to $245 in November and $250 in December. In theory, exporters should not sell below these levels, but it remains unclear whether they will adhere to these restrictions.
• The European Commission reports that EU soft wheat exports are down 29% year over year. Since the season began on July 1, exports have reached 6.64 mmt, compared to 9.3 mmt during the same period last year. Nigeria, the top importer, took 991,000 mt, followed by other North African countries, including Egypt and Morocco.
• The Indian government, through its farm ministry, has raised the minimum purchase price for domestic wheat for the 24/25 season to 2,425 rupees per 100 kg, up from 2,275 rupees last year. The reported cost of production is 1,182 rupees. The minimum prices for other crops, including rapeseed, lentils, and barley, have also been increased.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures continue to climb. December futures gained another 36 cents today to close at $21.28 while November gained 12 cents to close at $21.16.
• Spot cheese saw another day of gains, and was up 2.25 cents to close at $1.93625/lb.
• Whey closed down, losing 0.25 cents to close at $0.5950/lb.
• Spot butter closed up 2 cents today at $2.6350/lb while powder remained unchanged at $1.3500/lb.
• Class IV futures also saw gains today with December gaining 10 cents to close at $21.10.

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Author

Brandon Doherty