CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Sellers stepped back into the corn market on Tuesday as prices failed to follow through after Monday’s strength. Strong, consistent crop ratings and improved results on the Pro Farmer crop tour triggered some long liquidation.
• Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report saw the corn crop maintain its 67% good to excellent rating. This was steady with last week and 1% above expectations. The consistent ratings during this time window signal a large potential corn crop and keep yield estimates based on crop rating forecasting above trendline. As for maturity, 74% of the crop was in dough stage and 30% was dented, both ahead of 5-year averages.
• The Pro Farmer crop tour published yield results for Onio and South Dakota yesterday. Ohio has a yield potential of 183.29 bu/acre and South Dakota was 156.71 bu/acre. Both numbers were slightly below last year’s tour levels. The tour moved into Nebraska, western Indiana, and eastern Illinois today.
• The US Dollar Index softened for the second straight day this week, down over a full basis point since Friday’s close as technical charts broke lower. The prospects of a more friendly monetary policy in the near future has pressured the dollar index. The weaker dollar should help US grains compete on the global export market.
• Cash markets will likely be the driver of the price action into the end of the month, as producers will be likely moving old crop supplies and setting prices on basis contracts. Supplies are typically moved in this window with harvest around the corner. Basis levels will be an indicator of the cash market and the amount of corn movement.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day mixed with the November contract unchanged, while the deferred contracts were fractionally lower to a penny higher. Despite today’s move, November futures remain 21 cents off Friday’s low. Trade struggled with friendly news of export sales to China today against bearish news that crop conditions were unchanged when they were expected to fall. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil reversed for a higher close.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the soybean good to excellent rating unchanged at 68%, which compares to last year’s 58% at this time. 95% of the crop was blooming, compared to 91% last week, and 81% of the crop is setting pods versus 72% last week and the 5-year average of 80%.
• This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year and 239,492 metric tons of soybeans were sold for delivery to Mexico during the 24/25 marketing year.
• The Pro Farmer crop tour is ongoing and yesterday in Ohio, soybean yields were seen below the USDA’s most recent estimates. Soybean yields in South Dakota were seen up from last year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat had a positive close in all three US classes today. Matif wheat did not offer much direction, with a mostly neutral close and only a slight gain in the front month September contract. But the US Dollar Index saw another significant drop today, which may have provided some support to the wheat complex. At the time of writing, the index is down 0.43 to 101.45, the lowest level since January 2.
• According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, as of Sunday, winter wheat was 96% harvested. This is slightly above the 95% pace of both a year ago and the 5-year average. Spring wheat was rated 73% good to excellent, up 1% from last week and well above the 38% rating last year. Additionally, 31% of the crop is harvested compared to 35% last year and 36% on average.
• According to their ag minister, Russia’s total grain production estimate remains unchanged at 132 mmt. However, SovEcon increased their estimate of Russian wheat production by 0.4 mmt to 83.3 mmt. For reference, the USDA is estimating 83 mmt of Russian wheat production and the Russian ag minister is estimating 86 mmt.
• There was little other fresh news pertaining to the wheat market today. This may indicate that today’s rally was mostly technical in nature. Kansas City futures, in particular, are on the lower end of some technical indicators, signaling oversold conditions. Additionally, KC futures show a buy crossover signal on daily stochastics.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The September, October, November, and December Class III contracts hit new highs today with the second month closing up 20 cents at $22.50.
• Spot cheese gained a half-cent to move to a new high for the move at $2.1825/lb while spot whey was higher to close at $0.5575/lb.
• Class IV futures held some decent gains in the September-November months with the second month finishing Tuesday at $22.36.
• Spot butter lost a half-cent after hitting a new high for the move yesterday, closing at $3.17/lb. Spot powder hit a 19-month high at $1.2825/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg