CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures faded off session highs led by selling pressure in the front month September contract, as weekly export sales for old crop were disappointing and producers likely moved old crop bushels. Heading into the end of the week, December corn futures are 2 cents higher. However, the corn market has closed lower on the previous two Fridays.
• The USDA released weekly export sales data on Thursday morning. Old crop corn sales, despite only two weeks left in the marketing year, were at 4.7 mb (120,500 mt), a marketing year low, and below expectations. New crop sales on the other hand were favorable at 31.5 mb (800,500 mt), just slightly above expectations. The market is focused on new crops sales as the next marketing year is off to a slow start.
• Producer selling will be a limiting factor in the corn market as basis contracts must be priced by the month’s end. Additionally, producers will be looking to move old crop supplies to make room for this fall’s harvest.
• Current weather forecasts are non-threatening, which should only aid in good kernel fill as the crop moves closer to the finish line.
• The corn market will be watching field tours and potential yield results with upcoming crop tours over the next few weeks. The USDA has projected a lofty yield projection, and market participants will be looking for confirmation of this potential. Strong results could limit corn prices in the near term.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day mixed in bear spread trade which saw the front months lower but higher prices in the deferred contracts. Both the NOPA crush and export sales numbers were supportive today, but ongoing good weather conditions and anticipation of a large crop have pressured soybeans. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil was lower.
• Today’s NOPA crush numbers showed that 182.881 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in July. This was 5.5% above last July’s crush, exceeded the average trade guess, and set a record for July in any year. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.499 billion pounds, below the trade guess of 1.608 billion.
• Today’s export sales report was supportive, with an increase of 8.1 mb of soybeans for 23/24, within trade estimates, and an increase of 49.4 million bushels for 24/25, which was well above trade estimates. Last week’s export shipments of 15.8 mb were just below the 16.8 mb needed each week to reach the USDA’s export projection. Primary destinations were to China, unknown destinations, and Mexico.
• The Amazon River basin is experiencing very dry conditions during the dry season, worse than last year. Low river levels may be affecting the shipment of soybeans from northern areas to ports. While the majority of soybeans are exported from southern ports, difficult logistics in northern ports could increase export demand for US exporters.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• After early strength, all three classes of wheat faded to a negative close. A Russian drone strike on a port in Odesa, Ukraine, likely contributed to the overnight upward trend. However, a sharp rise in the US Dollar Index, which climbed back above 103, weighed on the market. Additionally, Paris milling wheat futures, which started the session higher, ended lower for the fourth consecutive day.
• In today’s weekly Export Sales report, the USDA reported an increase of 12.5 mb in wheat export sales for the 24/25 marketing year and a decrease of 2.5 million bushels for 25/26. Last week’s shipments reached 18.4 mb, surpassing the 16.1 mb per week needed to meet the export goal of 825 mb. Wheat sales commitments for 24/25 have reached 328 mb, exceeding the USDA’s estimated pace and up 32% from last year.
• As of August 13, the USDA reports that approximately 21% of US spring wheat acres are experiencing drought, a 3% increase from last week. However, conditions in both North Dakota and Minnesota remain favorable, with more than 80% of spring wheat rated good to excellent in both states.
• According to FranceAgriMer, despite expectations that the French wheat crop may be the smallest harvest since the 1980s, soft wheat quality is similar to last year’s. However, test weights vary significantly across different regions. Protein levels also vary, but are generally considered satisfactory.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Cheese buyers purchased another 5 loads today and bid the market up once again. Blocks added 7.25c to $2.10/lb while barrels gained 8.50c to $2.25/lb.
• The Class III market reacted to the best cheese price since July 2022 with limit up movement in September ($22.05) and October ($22.40) on heavy volume.
• The US spot butter market was up 2.50c to $3.1450/lb on a whopping 51 loads traded. Demand remains strong, despite higher butter inventories.
• With today’s settlements, second month Class III milk is now above second month Class IV milk for the first time since May.
• Second month Class III closed into its highest price since October 2022.

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Author

John Heinberg