CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Much lower than expected export sales pressured the corn market early in the session. Both September and December corn futures printed fresh contract lows before rallying back with carryover support from the wheat market. Concerns remain in the market that a slowing export pace could lead the USDA to lower its projections.
• In today’s weekly export sales report, the USDA reported new corn sales as of July 26 totaling 6.6 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 28.0 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week totaling 40.8 mb fell below the 41.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 2.225 bb.
• Weekly ethanol production data was released Wednesday by the EIA. For the week ending July 26, average daily ethanol production hit an all-time high of 1.109 million barrels. This was up 1% from the week prior and up 5% from last year. Stocks also saw a 1% increase from the previous week, and a 5% increase from last year. Corn used for production was estimated at 110.08 mb, about 5 mb behind the weekly pace needed to reach the USDA’s projection of 5.45 billion bushels.
• Weather forecasts look positive for crop production going into mid-August, as temperatures are expected to trend normal to below normal for much of the Corn Belt into the middle of the month, with overall precipitation expected to be mostly above normal for the same period.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for the third time so far this week as favorable weather in the 2-week forecast continues to pressure ag markets lower. November soybeans made a new low for the year and posted the lowest close of the year. While soybean meal closed slightly higher today, soybean oil slid lower with pressure from lower crude oil.
• Today’s Export Sales report was mixed with the USDA reporting an increase of 13.8 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 23.2 mb for 24/25. 23/24 sales were up noticeably from the previous week and the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 20.8 mb were above the 16.3 mb needed each week to meet USDA estimates. Primary destinations were to Germany, Mexico, and the Netherlands.
• This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This confirmed some previous rumors of China buying new crop US soybeans.
• Brazilian consultancy Datagro has estimated Brazil’s soybean acreage for 24/25 at 46.98 million hectares, or 116.09 million acres, which would be the 18th consecutive year that acreage was increased in the country if this is realized. Brazilian soybean production for 24/25 is estimated at 166.6 mmt which would be a 12% increase year over year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite early session weakness, a rebounding US Dollar, and a mostly lower close for Matif wheat futures, the wheat complex closed in the green for all three classes. Some of this was perhaps short covering by managed funds as wheat corrects from being technically oversold.
• In today’s weekly Export Sales report, the USDA reported a 10.5 mb increase in wheat sales for the 24/25 marketing year. Last week’s shipments were 16.7 mb, slightly above the 16.2 mb weekly pace needed to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. Total wheat sales commitments for 24/25 have reached 305 mb, up 42% from last year.
• In the Canadian prairies, rains have been isolated and are expected to remain so through the weekend. Combined with warmer temperatures, soil moisture levels are declining at a critical time for the spring wheat crop. This may explain why Minneapolis futures led the charge higher today.
• Domestic wheat prices in China are near three-year lows. Sinograin is reportedly increasing wheat purchases for their reserves to help support prices, as recent rains have prompted farmers to sell more wheat to avoid moisture damage. Additionally, China’s wheat harvest was up 2.7% from last year, reaching 138 mmt, which is not helping the situation.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The September Class III contract closed down 24 cents at $21.01 today, adding on to yesterday’s 46-cent loss.
• Spot cheese fell 2.1250 cents today to close at $1.92375/lb, entering Friday down 2.625 cents on the week after running into resistance again near $2.00/lb.
• Spot whey pushed to a new high for the move, garnering a half-cent to move to $0.6250/lb.
• None of the nearby Class IV futures moved today with some minor action taking place out into 2025.
• Spot butter was quiet today as it closed unchanged on no loads traded, whereas powder lost a half-cent to move to $1.24/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty