CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market was firmer on the session, supported by strength in the wheat market and short covering ahead of Friday’s USDA WASDE/Crop production report. The December contract is trading down 13 ¼ cents on the week going into the Friday session. The July futures contract expires on Friday.
• Expectations for the USDA Crop Production report on Friday is looking for increased corn carry out for the current and next marketing year as the USDA will be adding in the numbers from the Acreage and Grain Stocks reports on June 28. Expectations are for corn carryout for the 24/25 marketing year to reach 2.272 billion bushels, up 170 mb from last month. Typically, the USDA will not adjust yield or acreage in the July report.
• The weekly export sales report was within expectations for corn. Last week, US exporters posted new sales of 21.2 mb (538,000 mt) of old crop and 4.6 mb (117,000 mt) of new crop corn. Total new crop sales remain disappointing and have limited market strength.
• The Brazil Ag Agency, CONAB, released their July crop projections for corn and soybeans this morning. CONAB increased Brazil’s corn crop forecast to 115.86 mmt, up 1.7 mmt from their June projections, as yields were better than expected in some areas for the second crop harvest. Total corn production is still 12% smaller than last year, which totaled 131.89 mmt.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day slightly mixed, with front month August higher, the September contract unchanged, and the deferred contracts higher, after prices fell from their highs earlier this morning following a disappointing export sales report. Funds were likely exiting some short positions ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report as well. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher.
• Today’s export sales report showed an increase in soybean export sales of 7.6 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 7.0 mb for 24/25. This was down 9% from the previous week and 40% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 9.8 mb were below the 14.3 mb needed each week, and primary destinations were to the Netherlands, Indonesia, and Japan.
• Tomorrow, the USDA will release its WASDE report and expectations are for old crop ending stocks to increase slightly while new crop is expected to fall a bit due to lower acreage. Brazil’s soybean production is expected to be lowered as well.
• This morning, CONAB released its July estimates for Brazil’s soybean production but made few changes. Production was called at 147.34 mmt compared to 147.35 mmt last month. This compares to 154.61 mmt last year and is still well below the USDA’s last estimate.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed sharply higher with Kansas City futures leading the charge. Talk that Ukraine seized a Russian cargo vessel containing stolen wheat put some war premium back into the marketplace. Additionally, CONAB lowered their estimate of Brazil’s wheat production from 9.065 mmt last month, to 8.956 mmt this month. Finally, the US Dollar Index was sharply lower today, and at one point hit the lowest level in about a month before gaining some ground back.
• Tomorrow will feature the USDA’s monthly Supply and Demand report. The average pre-report estimate for US all wheat production is 1.913 bb, which would be up from 1.875 bb in June. Additionally, US ending stocks are expected to increase. For 23/24 the average guess is 698 mb versus 688 mb in June, and for 24/25 the trade guess is pegged at 793 mb versus 758 mb last month. Finally, world wheat carryout is expected to increase slightly for both crop seasons as well.
• The USDA reported an increase of 8.8 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 10.8 mb fell below the 15.5 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 800 mb. However, US wheat sales commitments are up 42% from this time last year at 262 mb.
• Canadian wheat production is estimated at 33.3 mmt, which is a decline of 1% from the previous estimate. Lower potential yields in the province of Saskatchewan due to dryness is cited as the reason for the drop. Yield projections are unchanged for both Alberta and Manitoba.
• According to their agriculture ministry, Ukraine has exported 1.13 mmt of grain since the season began on July 1. This represents an increase of 62% over last year’s 689,000 mt exported during the same timeframe. Of that total, 320,000 mt was said to be wheat, which is a 51% increase year over year. The surge in exports could be explained by delays and slow inspections last year before Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures saw early gains fall apart, mostly due to a lower cheese trade. August and September futures were down 22 and 32 cents, respectively.
• The block/barrel average fell 3.25 cents today to $1.9225/lb, entering Friday up 2.125 cents on the week. Whey jumped 2 cents to close at $0.51/lb.
• Traders were mostly absent from the 2024 Class IV milk futures on Thursday, but did push some of the 2025 contracts to small losses.
• It has been a quiet week for spot butter and powder, with powder unchanged from last Friday while spot butter enters the last day of the week down 3.25 cents.

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Author

Brandon Doherty