CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures pulled off session lows supported by strength in the soybean market, and the prospect of reduced crop ratings on this week’s report triggered some short covering at the end of the session.
• The USDA will release weekly crop ratings on Monday afternoon. Expectations are for the corn crop to be rated at 69% good to excellent, down 3% from last week. Recent hot weather across the southeastern corn belt, and heavy rainfall in the northwestern corn belt should limit crop ratings. Given the weather extremes over the past week, traders likely squared up positions going into the afternoon report.
• December corn futures traded through the February low of 446 during the session but rallied to close above that level. Holding this key support point may indicate a short-term bottom as the market looks towards Friday’s USDA planted acres and grain stocks report. The report is one of the most volatile reports of the marketing year.
• Weekly export inspections for corn remain strong. Last week, US exports shipped 44 mb (1.118 mmt) of corn. Currently, total inspections for the 23/24 marketing year are now at 1.639 bb, up 28% over last year.
• Weather forecast may remain as a limiting factor over the grain markets. Expectations are for warm temperatures and above normal precipitation over the corn belt into the July 4th holiday. Overall, those conditions will likely stay mostly favorable for crop development.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day significantly higher with the November contract rebounding from the lowest prices since November of 2021. Weather has been mixed with the central Corn Belt receiving necessary rains over the weekend while the northwestern Belt had areas which flooded severely. The forecast throughout the month is hot with scattered rains.
• Soybean meal closed higher today and has been performing relatively well likely due to the losses in Brazil due to flooding in which the soybeans that were lost were likely headed to Argentina to be crushed and exported as meal. Soybean oil closed lower and has been in a downward trend.
• Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress Report and analysts are expecting a decline in good to excellent ratings. It is expected that soybeans will come in at 97% planted which would compare to 93% last week. They are expected to be rated at 68% good to excellent, which would be a 2-point drop from last week’s ratings.
• With China making such a large soybean purchase last week, it may be an indicator that the US is becoming more competitive with Brazil, or that the recent weather events in Brazil have cut the size of their crop to an estimate closer than CONAB’s.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• With the exception of the July and September Kansas City contracts that gained fractions of a cent, the wheat complex closed lower across the board. Due to a shortened week, last Friday’s Commitments of Traders report has been delayed until this afternoon and is likely to show that managed funds added to their net short positions in wheat.
• The USDA reported weekly wheat inspections at 12.6 mb, which bring total 24/25 inspections to 39 mb. This is up 38% from the previous year and inspections are ahead of the USDA’s projected pace. Wheat exports are estimated at 800 mb for 24/25 which is up 11% from the previous year.
• Hot and dry conditions are expected this week across Ukraine and western Russia, with the extended outlook predicting more of the same. Southeastern Ukraine has received only 20-50% of normal rainfall between May 1 and June 10. Additionally, May was one of the driest months in 30 years in Ukraine, according to their state weather forecasters.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values are falling, putting pressure on the US export market. Prices ended last week at $231 per mt, down from $234 the previous week. SovEcon reported that Russian wheat exports last week totaled 830,000 mt, up from 800,000 mt the previous week.
• Weather in Australia is expected to be mostly normal, but some areas will have more than average rainfall. This should give a boost to the wheat crop, which is bearish for global prices.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk was able to gain on all but one 2024 futures contracts led by the August contract which was up 27 cents to $20.84/cwt.
• Spot cheese finally saw some positive momentum on Monday after 4 consecutive down days last week. Cheese improved 2 cents to $1.9025/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were weaker today on poor spot trading for Class IV products. The 2024 Class IV average lost 3 cents to $20.80/cwt.
• Spot butter was down 2.50 cents to $3.0650/lb while powder lost 1.25 cents to close at $1.1850/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty