CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn prices stayed in a consolidation pattern looking for direction. Despite strong trade in the wheat market and firm trade in the soybean market, corn futures failed to participate. For the week, May corn futures lost 7 ¾ cents and posted its lowest weekly close going back to the last week of February.
• Demand concerns due to the potential impact of HPAI (Avian Influenza) have limited the corn market this week.  The cases of HPAI have grown in both poultry and dairy cattle this week, which could limit feed demand usage of corn.
• Chinese corn prices have traded near three-year lows on the Dalian exchange as corn supplies are plentiful.  The USDA foreign ag service reduced 24/25 Chinese corn imports citing better expected overall production and increased planting area. China has remained mostly absent from the US corn export market so far this marketing year.
• Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day weather models are forecasting above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation going into mid-April. That combination and recent rainfall over the past week improved the chances for the next US corn crop to get off to a good start.
• Brazil weather remains unthreatening overall for development of the second (safrinha) corn crop. There are no short-term issues now, but South American weather will remain a key market driver in the weeks ahead.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher and were bull spread with most of the gains in the front months while new crop soybeans were only 1 cent higher. Support came again from strength in the soybean oil market with May futures closing higher by 1.54% while soybean meal slipped a bit lower.
• For the week, May soybeans lost 6 ½ cents which marks the third consecutive week of losses. November soybeans only lost 1 ½ cents for the week; May soybean meal was down $4.60, while May soybean oil gained 0.94 cents. Last week, funds covered a portion of their net short position but likely sold some of it back out this week.
• With palm oil having traded lower today, strength in soybean oil likely came from higher crude oil. Today, Brent crude oil rose to over $90 today and some analysts expect that it could exceed $100 a barrel. Increasing tensions between Iran and Israel are the likely reason for this week’s rally.
• Export sales remain weak for soybeans with 7.1 mb in sales reported in yesterday’s report as the world largely turns to Brazil for their purchases. Yesterday there was some positive news with Mexico picking up 5.6 mb of old crop US soybeans, but that was the first flash sale reported in weeks.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat managed double-digit gains in the Chicago class, with Kansas City and Minneapolis having only modest gains. Early strength stemmed from talk that Ukraine attacked Russian airfields, but some of that strength faded into the close, potentially due to a friendly jobs report that rallied the US Dollar Index. And after a back-and-forth trade over the past several sessions, May Chicago did post a weekly gain of seven cents.
• FAO-AMIS has reportedly reduced their estimate of global wheat stockpiles for the 23/24 season. Compared to the March estimate of 318.9 mmt, the new projection has fallen to 317.9 mmt. While they also slightly raised wheat production, the lower stocks are attributed to a cut to Russian inventory.
• Wheat conditions in France are rated 65% good to excellent. For reference, the crop was rated at 93% GTE at this time last year. Very wet conditions in western Europe are to blame for the decline. Other than some dryness in the Black Sea region and the US southern plains, there are not many other concerns for global wheat growing areas.
• While Russia and Ukraine still have the world’s cheapest wheat offers, Russian FOB values have increased from $198 to $213 per ton over the past three weeks. If those export prices continue to rise, it may present the opportunity for the US to become more competitive.
• From a technical perspective, May Chicago wheat rallied above the 50-day moving average of 570 during today’s session. Though it closed below that level, it has not traded above that moving average since late January. Therefore, the chart is beginning to look a bit more friendly, and any supportive news in the future may give wheat reason to run to the upside.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were supported by a stronger cheese trade today. May and June futures contracts for Class III saw gains of 50 cents or more while the July contract was close behind gaining 40 cents. The 2024 Class III bounced back above $17.00/cwt to $17.10/cwt.
• Spot cheddar was 7.75 cents higher on some flow over support from solid export numbers yesterday. Barrels were up 8 cents while blocks were up 7.50 cents. Whey futures were unchanged at $0.39/lb.
• Class IV futures were mixed with light volume trading. The 2024 Class IV average lost a penny to close at $20.61/cwt.
• Spot butter continues to be impressive gaining 10 cents over the week to close at the high of the year of $2.94/lb. Spot powder was weaker on the day trading at $1.1325/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty