TFM Morning Update 02-10-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after Friday’s sell-off, and has now retraced nearly 50% of the gains from Monday and Tuesday. President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all steel an aluminum imports to the US in another trade escalation that may make traders nervous.
The February WASDE report will be out tomorrow at 11 am central, and early estimates see US corn ending stocks falling slightly to 1,527 mb despite a slight estimated increase in export demand. World ending stocks are expected to remain unchanged.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of corn by 13,496 contracts which increased their net long position to 364,217 contracts as of February 4.

Soybeans are trading lower to start the day but have been relatively rangebound over the past month. Argentina is receiving needed rainfall while Brazil has begun to dry out for harvest. Soybean meal is slightly higher while soybean oil is trading lower.
Estimates for Tomorrow’s WASDE report see US soybean ending stocks falling by 3 mb 378 mb but also see a potential increase in export demand. Global ending stocks are estimated to remain unchanged to slightly lower.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of just 533 contracts of soybeans which increased their net long position to 57,029 contracts as of February 4.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower to start the day along with the rest of the grain complex. The dollar is trading higher which is likely adding pressure.
Fundamentals remain friendly for wheat as the US winter wheat crop has struggled from winter kill, and estimates for Russian wheat also slip due to weather problems in the country.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 20,340 contracts of Chicago wheat, decreasing their net short position to 90,442 contracts. They bought 6,405 contracts of KC wheat, decreasing their net short position to 35,981 contracts.

Amanda Brill