TFM Morning Update 02-07-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning with the March contract still struggling to break above $5.00. Yesterday’s export sales were strong for corn, but a large global balance sheet has kept prices from rallying further.
The February WASDE report will be on this coming Tuesday, and early estimates see US corn ending stocks falling slightly to 1,527 mb despite a slight estimated increase in export demand. World ending stocks are expected to remain unchanged.
Yesterday’s corn export sales of 58.2 million bushels were better than expected, and total commitments are now at 71.9% of the USDA’s export forecast with 30 weeks left in the marketing year.

Soybeans are trading lower to start the day and have been unable to break back above the 200-day moving average after spiking higher earlier in the week. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.
Estimates for Tuesday’s WASDE report see US soybean ending stocks falling by 3 mb 378 mb but also see a potential increase in export demand. Global ending stocks are estimated to remain unchanged to slightly lower.
In South America, Argentinian soybean production was last estimated at 52 mmt but may slip due to recent dry weather. The Brazilian soybean crop is estimated at 170 mmt.

All three wheat classes are trading lower to start the day after higher prices overnight saw the March Chicago wheat contract exceed $5.90 for the first time since November last year.
Fundamentals remain friendly for wheat as the US winter wheat crop has struggled from winter kill, and estimates for Russian wheat also slip due to weather problems in the country.
While US wheat markets typically follow the European wheat contracts, this rally has only been seen in US markets while the EU has been rangebound. This points to funds beginning to cover their short positions.

Amanda Brill