TFM Morning Update 02-06-2025

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher to start the day but the March contract has still been unable to hit the 5-dollar mark. Yesterday, futures got as high as $4.98-1/2.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 850k and 1,500k tons with an average guess of 1,133k. This would compare to last week’s 1,404k and 1,219k tons the previous year.
The next two months of weather will be crucial for Brazil’s second-crop corn. A delayed soybean harvest has slowed corn planting, with CONAB reporting just 5.3% complete to start the week, compared to 19.8% last year.

Soybeans are higher this morning and are taking back a portion of yesterday’s losses. Fundamentals are largely unchanged from yesterday with harvest ongoing in Brazil but delayed, so this move may be a technical recovery. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 300k and 1,100k tons with an average guess of 633k tons. This would compare to 443k last week and 350k tons the previous year.
Continued moisture and normal to below-normal temperatures have limited soybean harvest opportunities in Brazil. CONAB reported yesterday that harvest was only 8% done to start the week compared 14% last year.

All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day with Chicago wheat posting the larger gains. March Chicago wheat is managing to hold just above the 100-day moving average. It is encouraging to see wheat trade higher with the US dollar higher as well.
Strong harvests reported in both Argentina and Australia could lessen the worry of potential reductions in world wheat production due to recent cold snaps in Russia and the U.S.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 200k and 550k tons with an average guess of 350k tons. This would compare to 480k last week and 387k the previous year.

Amanda Brill