TFM Midday Update 01-10-2025

CORN

Corn is trading mixed at midday ahead of today’s USDA WASDE report, but still showing some strength due to a tighter supply outlook for 2025.
China has significantly reduced its estimated corn imports for the 24/25 season, lowering the forecast from 13 mt last month to 9 mt. While this would typically be bearish for the corn market, today’s USDA report is expected to show a decline in ending stocks, helping to support prices.
Rains are urgently needed to replenish Argentina’s stressed corn crop after several weeks of hot, dry weather, but showers are expected within the next week. As the world’s third-largest corn exporter, Argentina has received little to no rain since December in its primary growing region, making these upcoming rain showers crucial for sustaining crop development.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday as traders await the USDA WASDE report, scheduled for release at 11 AM Central. While soybeans and soybean oil are making gains, soybean meal is trading lower.
The soybean market is receiving support today, driven by a sharp rally in soybean oil overnight. This surge follows reports that the Biden Administration plans to release short-term guidance on clean fuel tax credits today while leaving the final decision to the incoming Trump Administration.
The USDA plays a significant role in today’s trade through the release of the WASDE report, but traders remain focused on weather conditions in Argentina and Southern Brazil. Dry and hot weather continues to stress crops in these regions; however, showers are expected next week, potentially providing much-needed relief.

Wheat prices are trading lower at midday, as the strength of the U.S. dollar and weakening exports continue to pressure the market.
The wheat market remains quiet ahead of today’s USDA report, largely due to expectations of burdensome U.S. ending stocks and a generally weak technical outlook.
The USDA is expected to forecast total winter wheat seedings at 33.37 million acres, slightly down from 33.39 million acres last year.
The winter wheat crop in the southern Plains received beneficial moisture yesterday and overnight, but conditions are expected to dry out across most of the Plains over the next week.

Lauren VandenLangenberg