CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Strong buying moved into the grain markets on Thursday, fueled by a strong rally in soybean and soybean meal markets. That buying strength supported the corn market as futures finished with moderate gains. March corn posted its highest daily close since June 27.
• Drier than normal forecasts for Argentina have triggered short covering in the soybean and meal markets, adding some weather premium into the market. Corn futures are watching Argentina weather as well as the Argentina corn crop is finishing planting and could be limited with a drier forecast.
• USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning. Expectations for new sales to range from 1.0 MMT –1.6 MMT for the week ending Dec 19. Last week, export sales were 1.17 MMT as the pace remains strong.
• The demand in the corn market will be a key driver in price. Export demand and ethanol usage are still ahead of USDA pace, and U.S. corn is still the largest player in the corn export market through spring with limited global export supplies.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day significantly higher following the Christmas holiday and were driven by sharply higher soybean meal and low volume trade. March soybeans have now rallied 50 cents from their contract low on December 19. Soybean oil closed lower today.
• There was little news and less volume for soybeans to trade today, but the dominating factor seemed to be the new slightly drier forecast for Argentina over the next 10 days. This is not likely to affect production much but could be temporarily supporting meal prices.
• CONAB has reported that Brazil is expected to export 105.5 mmt of soybeans in the 24/25 season. Through November of this year, the country’s soybean exports total 96.8 mmt, which is down 46% from the previous period.
• Funds hold a large net short position in soybeans and may be buying a portion back before the end of the year. Additionally, soybeans have been closely following moves in the Brazilian real which was higher today and therefore supportive.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• All three US wheat classes saw solid gains today, driven primarily by spillover support from sharply higher soybean futures. This itself was likely due to a gap higher in meal after Argentina’s 10-day weather outlook turned drier. Additionally, lighter trade volume surrounding the holidays may be leading to increased volatility.
• The US Dollar Index continued to consolidate today but remains at an elevated level. If it sets back, that may give wheat some room to rally. But from a technical perspective, it is forming a bullish pennant chart formation. If this pattern is accurate, it could mean that the Dollar is due for a breakout to the upside, which would likely lead to weakness in the wheat market.
• Data out of Russia indicates that their 2024 wheat crop reached 82 mmt. It was also said that frost damage in the spring and drought in the summer led to a 30% decline in production for Russia’s largest growing area. Finally, their government is estimating 25/26 wheat exports at 36.4 mmt, compared to the USDA estimate of 47 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mixed on the day with most contracts holding small gains. January gave back 8 cents from Tuesday’s close.
• Both spot cheese and whey were unchanged. Spot whey enters Friday unchanged from last week with the block/barrel average down 0.6250 cents.
• Class IV futures saw the May, June, and September 2025 futures close with small gains today. The 2025 average is at $20.77.
• Both Class IV products were lower today with butter losing a half cent and powder down a penny.

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Author

John Heinberg