TFM Morning Update 12-27-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after yesterday’s thin holiday trade and the Argentine drier forecast caused prices to rally over 5 cents and take out the 200-day moving average for the first time since May.
The USDA will release its export sales report today, and estimates for corn see exports between 1,000k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 1,313k tons. This would exceed both last week and a year ago.
The USDA will also release its ethanol report today, and production is seen lower than the previous week at 1.1 million barrels per day. Stockpiles are estimated at 22.887m bbl vs 22.636m a week ago.

Soybeans are lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex after rallying over 15 cents yesterday on a short-term drier Argentinian forecast and fund short covering before year’s end. Soybean meal is trading lower while soybean oil is higher.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 1,000k and 1,925k tons with an average guess of 1,624k tons. This would compare to 1,424k tons a week ago and 850k tons a year ago.
CONAB has said that Brazil’s soybean exports are likely to reach 105.5 mmt in the 24/25 season which would be an improvement from the previous season where export totaled 96.8 mmt as a result of lower production.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning led by KC wheat after all three moved significantly higher in yesterday’s trade. March Chicago wheat is 11 cents off its recent contract low.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 250k and 600k tons with an average guess of 450k tons. This would compare to 458k last week and 318k the previous year.
Turkish wheat production is expected to fall by 5.5% in 2024 according to TurkStat. Total cereals output decreased by 7.5% in 2024, and the country will start to more freely allow wheat imports as a result.

Amanda Brill