CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures saw some price recovery on Thursday led by a supportive weekly export sales report, and buying strength in the soybean market.
• The proposed spending legislation to combat the potential government shutdown this weekend is likely to get rejected. This possibility could put plans for the 40B tax credit back on the table, which has been a pressure in the market the past couple sessions.
• Weekly corn exports sales last week totaled 1.174 MMT (46.2 mb) which was within expectations. Total corn sales on the books are trending 29% above last year and still ahead of the adjusted USDA pace.
• The Brazilian real continues to lose value against the US dollar, reaching new historical lows again on Wednesday. The weaker currency gives Brazilian grain exports a significant price advantage over US offerings.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher in recovery action following yesterday’s meltdown. Futures recovered around half of yesterday’s losses, but there are still a number of bearish factors that could continue driving prices lower. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher.
• This morning, private exporters reported sales of 227,200 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations. Of the total, 152,200 metric tons are for delivery for the 2024/2025 marketing year and 75,000 metric tons are for delivery for the 2025/2026 marketing year.
• Today’s Export Sales report was good with sales coming in right at the average trade guesses. The USDA reported an increase of 52.3 mb for 24/25. Last week’s export shipments of 62.0 mb were well above the 25.6 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate. Primary destinations were to China, unknown destinations, and Pakistan.
• The devaluation of the Brazilian real relative to the rising US dollar has made US soybeans less competitive. However, the larger bearish news yesterday may have come from concerns about the expiration of the 40B tax credit at the end of the year, which could impact renewable diesel and, consequently, soybean oil.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat markets fell today, led by Chicago, despite gains in corn and soybeans. A stronger US Dollar Index and weaker Paris milling wheat weighed heavily, as traders brushed off concerns over poor Russian conditions.
• The USDA reported 16.8 mb in wheat export sales for 24/25. Weekly shipments fell short of the 17.6 mb needed to hit the 850 mb target, but total commitments are at 593 mb—up 9% year-over-year.
• FranceAgriMer raised French 24/25 wheat stocks to 2.87 mmt (+2.7% from November) but still 9.9% lower than 23/24. Soft wheat export estimates dropped slightly to 9.76 mmt from 9.89 mmt last month.
• Strategie Grains are anticipating better growing conditions in the EU for the 25/26 wheat crop. A larger planted area and better yields are expected to lead to an 11% increase in soft wheat production. Additionally, EU soft wheat exports may rise due to a lower Russian crop.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures closed with hefty losses for the second straight day as January futures gave back 68 cents to close at $19.49.
• Spot cheese fell 1.50 cents on the day, still hanging above the $1.80/lb mark, while whey gave back a penny.
• Nearby Class IV futures were unchanged while some April and May saw small gains on a single trade.
• Spot butter and powder were both even with Wednesday’s close.
• November Milk Production was pegged at 17.875 million lbs, down 1.0% from November 2023. This largely came from reductions in production from California.

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Author

John Heinberg