CORN

• Corn surrendered earlier gains and is now trading near the bottom of its 5 ½ cent range, pressured by sharply lower soybeans despite reports of another flash sale and solid ethanol production.
• The USDA reported private exporters sold 135,000 mt of corn for delivery to Colombia during the 24/25 marketing year.
• A federal budget bill under consideration includes a provision for nationwide, year-round sales of 15% ethanol blends, which could add 35–40 mb of corn usage to the US balance sheet.
• Ethanol production for the week ending Dec. 13 averaged 1.103 million barrels/day, with estimated corn use at 111.28 million bushels, well above the 104.41 mb needed to meet USDA projections.

SOYBEANS

• Soybeans remain sharply lower at midday, under pressure from both products. Soybean meal is currently down over $6/ton, while bean oil is about 100 points lower.
• The USDA reported private export sales of 120,000 tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Colombia during the 24/25 marketing year.
• The 40B tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) expires this year, and without 45Z guidance, biodiesel and SAF production may decline, reducing soybean oil demand and pressuring bean oil and soybeans.
• One factor in this sell-off, which has driven soybeans to new contract lows, is the devaluation of the Brazilian real against the rising US dollar. This has made Brazil significantly more competitive in global exports.

WHEAT

• The wheat complex remains higher across the board, though off session highs, as it gains support from Russian production cuts and higher Paris milling wheat.
• Ukrainian grain exports are up 22% year-over-year, including 9.2 mmt of wheat, a 37% increase from last season.
• SovEcon reduced its estimate for the Russian wheat crop to 78.7 mmt, the lowest since 2021 and down 3 mmt. This reduction in Russian production could support higher wheat futures.

Author

Scott Masters