TFM Morning Update 12-19-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after a sharp sell-off yesterday that was driven by a meltdown in the soybean complex. Support for March futures is now around the 50-day moving average at $4.33.
Yesterday’s ethanol report showed production at 1.103 million barrels per day which was the highest in history for the second week of December. Ethanol stocks fell slightly to 22.874 mln bbl.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a wide range between 27 and 63 mb. Demand has been strong with exports and domestically, but traders are expecting a large 2025 corn crop.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher to unchanged this morning after a huge sell-off yesterday that was driven by a decline in the Brazilian currency and concerns over the ending of the 40B tax credit. For the week so far, Jan soybeans have lost 38 cents.
Soybean meal is currently trading slightly lower while soybean oil is higher as prices attempt to stabilize after falling apart yesterday. Crush demand remains solid which has created a glut of bean meal.
Today’s export sales report shows soybean sales in a range between 30 and 73 million bushels. There have been a handful of flash sales reported over the past week.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way lower as selling pressure continues throughout the grain complex. The rise in the dollar yesterday was bearish for wheat.
SovEcon has cut its estimate for the Russian wheat crop to the lowest level since 2021 at 78.7 mmt which is a decline of 3 mmt. Cuts in Russian production could be a catalyst for higher wheat futures.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a meager range between 8 and 20 million bushels. Wheat sales are still above last year’s pace.

Amanda Brill