TFM Morning Update 12-18-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher again this morning in quiet trade. Yesterday, lower soybean futures dragged corn down along with them.
There is currently a federal budget bill to keep the government running that includes a provision to allow nationwide sales of 15% ethanol blends for the entire year.
Estimates for the weekly EIA report see ethanol production higher than the previous week at 1.079m b/d. The average stockpile estimate is 22.874m bbl compared to 22.648m a week ago.

Soybeans are trading sharply lower again today and have so far lost 24 cents this week in the January contract. This morning, both soybean meal and oil are trading lower, but soybean oil has been making up the larger losses.
A large factor in this sell off which has created new contract lows has been the devaluation of the Brazilian real against the rallying in the US dollar. This has made Brazil far more competitive for global exports.
Domestically, the Biden administration has not been clear on the future of the 45Z tax credits which were supposed to be in place going into next year. This has affected renewable diesel and therefore soybean oil.

All three wheat classes are trading higher but quietly this morning as wheat and corn attempt to stay positive while soybeans collapse. European wheat markets are higher as well lending support.
SovEcon has cut its estimate for the Russian wheat crop to the lowest level since 2021 at 78.7 mmt which is a decline of 3 mmt. Cuts in Russian production could be a catalyst for higher wheat futures.
Ukrainian grain exports are 22% higher year over year so far this season. Total exports included 9.2 mmt of wheat which is up 37% from last year.

Amanda Brill