CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures ended the week on a three-day losing streak, pressured by producer selling and concerns over softening demand. The most active March futures finished the week 2 cents higher but were down 9 ¼ cents from the week’s highs.
• Price action this week was challenging for corn bulls, as a friendly USDA report with a larger-than-expected drop in carryout and a strong demand shift only resulted in small weekly gains.
• Selling pressure across grain markets weighed on corn Friday, with aggressive wheat and soybean selling keeping buyers sidelined. Weak export sales and the strong US dollar continue to reduce US grain competitiveness.
• Flash export sales of corn remain quiet, with the last USDA announcement (excluding a November 25 sale to Mexico) on November 13. Higher prices and a strong dollar have curbed export activity over the past month.
• South American weather remains pivotal for grain markets in 2025. Minimal weather issues so far have kept significant weather premium out of the corn and soybean markets, with strong South American production expected.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower and, while still within the week’s trading range, are now near the lower end. Both soybean meal and oil also closed lower, with meal posting more significant losses.
• For the week, January soybeans lost 5 ½ cents within a relatively tight range. Nov ‘25 soybeans gained 1 ¼ cents, January soybean meal dropped $1.20, and January soybean oil fell 0.36 cents. Overall, it was a quiet week of trade with little fresh news to drive a trend.
• This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 200,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for 24/25. While encouraging, the market reaction was muted following yesterday’s poor export sales numbers.
• Yesterday, CONAB released revised estimates for corn and soybean production. Soybean production was raised slightly to 166.21 mmt from 166.14 mmt, increasing soybean ending stocks marginally.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted losses across the board again today, pressured by corn and soybeans drifting lower. March Chicago closed below its 21-day moving average, while Kansas City and Minneapolis March futures held above theirs.
• Argentina’s wheat harvest advanced 16% to 64% complete, with production estimated at 18.6 mmt, above the USDA’s 17.5 mmt and last year’s 15.1 mmt, according to the BAGE.
• China’s statistics bureau stated that their grain production reached a record 706.5 mmt in 2024, up 1.6% from last year. Wheat production is forecast at 140.1 mmt, aligning with USDA estimates.
• Western Australia’s wheat harvest is wrapping up, with estimates raised to 10.83 mmt, its third-largest on record and up from November’s 10.33 mmt forecast.
• Russia reduced its wheat export tax by 15% to 4,136.50 Rubles/mt until Dec. 24. Meanwhile, shipments to Syria have been halted over payment concerns linked to its new government.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures looked to carry over Thursday’s momentum early on before reversing lower after the lackluster spot session today.
• Cheddar was up for a third straight day by half a penny to close at $1.76375/lb. Whey continues to show its strength, pushing to yet another new year high and its highest level since February 2022 at $0.7925/lb.
• Class IV milk futures struggled after a poor spot session for butter. First quarter contracts were down 18 cents or more with January closing at $20.60.
• Spot butter lost 6 cents on the day to go home at $2.4650/lb while powder was unchanged at $1.3775/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty