TFM Morning Update 12-16-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after prices began to slip last Wednesday likely driven by farmer selling. Today’s export sales report is expected to show firm demand today.
In Brazil, corn prices are firm, but CONAB and other analysts are expecting that 24/25 corn production will exceed last year’s by 3.4% and reach 119.63 mmt.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of corn as of December 10 in a big way. They bought 77,670 contracts which increased their net long position to 165,890 contracts. Since the July low at 353,983 shorts, the funds have bought 519,873 net long contracts. This swing in fund money generated a 48-cent rally off the lows.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning as trade anticipates good export inspections numbers as well as strong NOPA crush numbers. Soybean meal is leading the complex higher while soybean oil is lower.
The NOPA crush report will be released at 11am, and expectations are that it will total 196.7 million bushels which would be 3 mb shy of the October record. Large crush numbers have created excess soybean meal supplies.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans by 13,897 contracts which reduced their net short position to 58,320 contracts as of December 10.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with KC wheat leading the way. European wheat futures have rallied, and concerns remain about the Russian wheat crop, both situations favorable to US prices.
In Argentina, estimates for the 24/25 wheat crop production have been increased by 0.5 mmt with over half the crop now harvested. Larger producer, Russia, may reportedly see cuts to their production which would be friendly.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of Chicago wheat by 2,607 contracts reducing their net short position to 66,779 contracts. Funds bought back 1,994 contracts reducing their net short position to 36,436 contracts.

Amanda Brill